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#5747745 - 06/06/12 02:03 PM Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz. [Re: ninanina]
delekkerste Offline

James Bond wears a Rolex...the rest is just product placement.

TOTAL NEWBIE


Registered: 08/21/02
Posts: 12163
Loc: New York, NY
 Originally Posted By: ninanina
Why is the market going up and...will it last?

Any thoughts?

Europes is still about to explode, no?


I haven't changed my mind at all since my June 1 post. The Daily Sentiment Index showed only 5% bulls on the S&P 500 as of Friday, so I'm not surprised at all that we're seeing a rip-your-face-off rally with all the short-term players leaning the wrong way. How long it lasts, who can say...I was looking for a rebound back to 1335 on the S&P 500 (it's back to 1307 now), but if it goes higher than that, it's all gravy to me since I've been positioned long of late. It doesn't change the intermediate-term bearish outlook at all as far as I'm concerned. The job of this rally is to squeeze the shorts and sucker people back in before the next shoe drops.

Here's what I said on June 1:

1285 on the S&P now...I suspect we'll see a short-term bottom within the next week (probably in the 1250-1275 range) [update: the low thus far was 1267] which will set up a counter-trend bounce back up to the low-to-mid 1300s, which means it's probably worth gritting your teeth and hanging on for a rebound, as sentiment is very negative here and the odds of a bounce are growing. Materials stocks are outperforming today as some people are jumping the gun on QE3 speculation.

I think the upcoming counter-trend rally will just set us up for an even bigger decline later in the year, though, and will probably be investors' best and last chance to sell at respectable levels.
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#5747906 - 06/06/12 02:53 PM Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz. [Re: tth2]
thirdgreenham Offline
Eleventy millionth person to declare their first year on the boards as the golden age, and the current era to be worthless.
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Registered: 02/16/06
Posts: 20192
 Originally Posted By: tth2
 Originally Posted By: thirdgreenham
Ni hao, from Taiwan!

What`s up Andy?


ah, nothing, just enjoying my vacation with family in Taiwan. Assumed you spoke mandarin, so just said hi.

In previous years, when I've made my trip to Taiwan, gold jumped by $200. This happened twice, I believe 600-800 and then again 1000-1200. I bought some more before I left with the same thoughts/hopes. lol

Not $200 yet, but we did see a nice pop, though. \(thumbs u

Still have 13 more days yet....
_________________________
-Andy

what goes around comes around...oh yeah, and respect your parents

forestcitycoins is my eBay store, click if you like. \(thumbs u




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#5748253 - 06/06/12 04:30 PM Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz. [Re: delekkerste]
FFB Offline

At long last I feel regular.

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Registered: 02/03/04
Posts: 20702
What are all of you prognosticators thinking will happen in Europe? Eurobonds? Carving out Greece? Some combination of the above?
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#5748417 - 06/06/12 05:26 PM Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz. [Re: FFB]
ninanina Offline
FACT if I stop posting, trillions and trillions of transistors would be out of work.


Registered: 10/17/02
Posts: 4356
Loc: Winnipeg, Canada
Sorry, the best I can do is simply say there's a 60/40 chance that Greece will eventurally leave the Euro. I'm actually more worried about Spain's banks melting down. Who's going to blink 1st...Spain or Germany?

Edited by ninanina (06/06/12 05:26 PM)

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#5749115 - 06/06/12 08:51 PM Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz. [Re: thirdgreenham]
tth2 Offline

"I blame it on the low quality of the newbies that are joining the boards."
--And with one swoop tth2 become the community crotchety old man. Damn kids today.

TOTAL NEWBIE


Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 37240
Loc: Hong Kong
 Originally Posted By: thirdgreenham
 Originally Posted By: tth2
 Originally Posted By: thirdgreenham
Ni hao, from Taiwan!

What`s up Andy?


ah, nothing, just enjoying my vacation with family in Taiwan. Assumed you spoke mandarin, so just said hi.

I do, and was just curious what you were doing in Taiwan.

Why Taiwan? I live an hour's flight from Taiwan and never go there on vacation! lol

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#5749122 - 06/06/12 08:53 PM Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz. [Re: delekkerste]
tth2 Offline

"I blame it on the low quality of the newbies that are joining the boards."
--And with one swoop tth2 become the community crotchety old man. Damn kids today.

TOTAL NEWBIE


Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 37240
Loc: Hong Kong
 Originally Posted By: delekkerste
 Originally Posted By: FFB
For Gene or anyone else - what do you think happens to Gold in the near term, with both deflationary forces starting and growing pressure to institute inflationary QE measures? A spike until and somewhat through the next QE announcement (because it's all but a foregone conclusion at this point)? A massive drop due to deflationary forces first (plus whatever lingering doubt exists re whether there will be QE3), followed by a spike if QE3 happens? I have some GLD options (straddle) that expire next January and I am curious as to whether to cash out here, cash out the puts here and hold the calls, or hold everything?


I think there is more potential variability in the future direction of gold than any other asset class at the moment precisely because of the competing forces you mentioned. It's possible that, despite tremendous deflationary pressure building in the system, that the flight to safety bid + QE3 speculation/realization could prompt a new bull leg to new highs. Or, it may just be that the deflationary pressure becomes overwhelming and the GLD tanks to the $120-$130 level (or even lower). All eyes are on the $148-ish level which has stopped the post-all time high decline twice now. As long as we stay comfortably above that level, the gold chart will look like its tracing out a triangle consolidation pattern on the chart that looks like new highs are possible. I suspect a third test of that level would fail, however, and that would augur SIGNIFICANTLY lower prices. Right now, I'm long, as I suspect that GLD will get back to $160-$165 near-term, but we'll have to see if it can do any better than that or if it craters again.

So, bottom line, the intermediate-term picture is not clear. If I had to guess, I'd say there's a 2/3rds chance of gold falling victim to the deflationary pressure and tanking along with everything else in the coming months (I think there is a risk that bonds could also join the rout later this year) vs. a 1/3rd chance of it benefiting from a store of value bid and rising to new highs. After all, it performed absolutely miserably in 2008 when we had similar deflationary risks. Right now, it looks as though US Dollar Cash is King and is a surer intermediate-term bet than gold - as deflationary pressures intensify, more and more people will want to hold cash, especially in the currency which has the largest denomination of debt (USD).

Based on reports, it would appear that Soros has fallen into the "flight to safety trumps deflationary impact" camp.

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#5750010 - 06/07/12 05:01 AM Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz. [Re: tth2]
thirdgreenham Offline
Eleventy millionth person to declare their first year on the boards as the golden age, and the current era to be worthless.
TOTAL NEWBIE


Registered: 02/16/06
Posts: 20192
 Originally Posted By: tth2
 Originally Posted By: thirdgreenham
 Originally Posted By: tth2
 Originally Posted By: thirdgreenham
Ni hao, from Taiwan!

What`s up Andy?


ah, nothing, just enjoying my vacation with family in Taiwan. Assumed you spoke mandarin, so just said hi.

I do, and was just curious what you were doing in Taiwan.

Why Taiwan? I live an hour's flight from Taiwan and never go there on vacation! lol


Starting at the north-east coast and going all the way down the east coast of Taiwan is one of the most beautiful sites you'll ever see. Hualien is by far the prettiest area of Taiwan. Anyway, being just an hour away, you should spend a week here.

My wife is Taiwanese so we're here every couple of years. I lived here for 3 years previously, and the people are really friendly and courteous (for the most part).

I've been to HK, but never to the mainland. I promised myself I would one day.

okay, back to the bulls and bears \(thumbs u
_________________________
-Andy

what goes around comes around...oh yeah, and respect your parents

forestcitycoins is my eBay store, click if you like. \(thumbs u




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#5750461 - 06/07/12 10:46 AM Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz. [Re: thirdgreenham]
tth2 Offline

"I blame it on the low quality of the newbies that are joining the boards."
--And with one swoop tth2 become the community crotchety old man. Damn kids today.

TOTAL NEWBIE


Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 37240
Loc: Hong Kong
 Originally Posted By: thirdgreenham
 Originally Posted By: tth2
 Originally Posted By: thirdgreenham
 Originally Posted By: tth2
 Originally Posted By: thirdgreenham
Ni hao, from Taiwan!

What`s up Andy?


ah, nothing, just enjoying my vacation with family in Taiwan. Assumed you spoke mandarin, so just said hi.

I do, and was just curious what you were doing in Taiwan.

Why Taiwan? I live an hour's flight from Taiwan and never go there on vacation! lol


Starting at the north-east coast and going all the way down the east coast of Taiwan is one of the most beautiful sites you'll ever see. Hualien is by far the prettiest area of Taiwan. Anyway, being just an hour away, you should spend a week here.

I lived in Taiwan for 6 years when I was a kid, which is why I can speak Mandarin. Talk about a different era--rice paddies right in the middle of Taipei.

 Quote:
My wife is Taiwanese so we're here every couple of years. I lived here for 3 years previously, and the people are really friendly and courteous (for the most part).

I've been to HK, but never to the mainland. I promised myself I would one day.

Very cool. If you come out this way next time, try to swing through HK. It`d be great to meet up.

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#5753241 - 06/08/12 06:06 AM Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz. [Re: tth2]
thirdgreenham Offline
Eleventy millionth person to declare their first year on the boards as the golden age, and the current era to be worthless.
TOTAL NEWBIE


Registered: 02/16/06
Posts: 20192
\(thumbs u

will do
_________________________
-Andy

what goes around comes around...oh yeah, and respect your parents

forestcitycoins is my eBay store, click if you like. \(thumbs u




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#5753614 - 06/08/12 10:33 AM Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz. [Re: thirdgreenham]
The_Black_Hand Offline

The Common Man
meets
Regular People

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Registered: 10/31/03
Posts: 32104
Loc: Guillotine Sharpening Shop
Someone whispered in my ear.....someone who knows and who's in the know that it's a coin toss whether the market will go up, down or sideways and to hedge your bets, dollar cost average your funds and diversify. Take the good with the bad, look for buying opportunities and to remember that one in the hand is worth two in the bush. This sage financial adviser gets paid good money for his advice. \:\/
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