#5643278 - 05/01/12 11:55 AM
Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz.
[Re: tth2]
|
Hamlet
Bid more or post more... tough one...
Registered: 11/02/09
Posts: 967
|
I think that the only option for Apple's corporate treasurer in that situation would be equities.
Big multinational stocks are the only tangible asset class big enough and liquid enough.
If I've got so much money that hard commodities are not an option, I'm buying Coke, Proctor and Gamble, Microsoft, Exxon, Berkshire Hathaway, etc.
They will be getting crushed too, but if we continue to have any economy at all, they will have some value.
Seriously, imagine that Apple`s corporate treasurer is way ahead of the curve and realizes he needs to put his $100 billion of cash somewhere else. It would be really freaking hard to invest that much cash somewhere in some kind of form where it would be available on short notice, even at a loss. I somehow can`t see Apple (or if some massive mutual fund cashes out of equities) parking all that cash in warehouses of precious and industrial metals, and acres of timberland, even if there was enough of it to buy. The haircut if they had to exit any such investment quickly and in large volume would dwarf the haircut they would take from your hypothetical Treasury default.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#5643289 - 05/01/12 12:00 PM
Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz.
[Re: Hamlet]
|
tth2
"I blame it on the low quality of the newbies that are joining the boards." --And with one swoop tth2 become the community crotchety old man. Damn kids today.
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 33338
Loc: Hong Kong
|
I think that the only option for Apple's corporate treasurer in that situation would be equities. Big multinational stocks are the only tangible asset class big enough and liquid enough. If I've got so much money that hard commodities are not an option, I'm buying Coke, Proctor and Gamble, Microsoft, Exxon, Berkshire Hathaway, etc. They will be getting crushed too, but if we continue to have any economy at all, they will have some value. Seriously, imagine that Apple`s corporate treasurer is way ahead of the curve and realizes he needs to put his $100 billion of cash somewhere else. It would be really freaking hard to invest that much cash somewhere in some kind of form where it would be available on short notice, even at a loss. I somehow can`t see Apple (or if some massive mutual fund cashes out of equities) parking all that cash in warehouses of precious and industrial metals, and acres of timberland, even if there was enough of it to buy. The haircut if they had to exit any such investment quickly and in large volume would dwarf the haircut they would take from your hypothetical Treasury default. Okay, actually Apple wasn`t a good choice because theoretically they could put their cash into anything they want, even if it seems unlikely that their corporate treasury policies would allow them to put all their cash into equities.
Let`s use an example like insurance companies and pension funds like CALPERs, who by law could not put huge chunks of their funds into equities or illiquid assets like real estate and commodities. What are they gonna do?
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#5643336 - 05/01/12 12:26 PM
Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz.
[Re: delekkerste]
|
VintageComics
You don't get one.
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 05/16/04
Posts: 62498
Loc: Got nubs?
|
Think outside the box.
It's very likely that if all conventional markets fail that someone somewhere might think up of a place to hold people's money, much like the bundled bad mortgages that put us in this mess in the first place.
Not necessarily a "good" place, but a new place.
I don't think financial architects have any sort of problem scheming up a new idea if they need one.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#5643811 - 05/01/12 03:12 PM
Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz.
[Re: FFB]
|
delekkerste
James Bond wears a Rolex...the rest is just product placement.
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 08/21/02
Posts: 10310
Loc: New York, NY
|
My mind keeps going back to what happened to Treasurys when S&P downgraded them - cash flooded into Treasurys.
I agree with Tim - UST is the last refuge for money. We are the world's reserve currency, so people have to buy dollars to conduct international trade. The consequences of "bond vigilantes" taking the UST to task would be so severe that there is no incentive to do it, since the bond vigilantes will get crushed along with everyone else if the UST tanks. Anywhere they would put their money would get obliterated if the UST tanks, so why tank it?
Again, you are describing a set of circumstances that exists now, but may not in the future if things evolve the way I think they will. I'm also not sure why you would think the bond vigilantes would get crushed if the UST market tanks when they'll be making triple digit returns on their leveraged shorts and CDS positions. In any case, if it comes down to the government having to either print or restructure/default, do you and Tim really think people are just going to leave their money in place because there is allegedly no place to go? If we can put a man on the moon, I guarantee you people will figure out alternative places to put their capital.
Like I said, I'm bullish on US Treasury debt with the economy rolling over, and it was no surprise to me that a symbolic, but ultimately meaningless, gesture like a one notch ratings downgrade by one rating agency did not tank the market. A future crisis is inevitable, but nowhere near upon us at the moment, which is why the market can behave as it has been behaving. But, to extrapolate that notion indefinitely into the future would be a mistake - there will come a day when Japan borrows the yen that breaks the market's back and when the U.S. borrows the dollar that gets the bond vigilantes in motion...eventually.
_________________________
"No asset is so good that it can't become a bad investment if bought at too high a price." - Howard Marks
Price is what you pay, value is what you get.
It's better to be thought a fool than to open your wallet and remove all doubt.My ComicArtFans.com Online Comic Art Gallery
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#5643979 - 05/01/12 03:57 PM
Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz.
[Re: delekkerste]
|
Transplant
WARNING!!! This member is passive aggressive. Please beware of sharp fingernails.
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 08/16/07
Posts: 14640
Loc: Ellen James Society
|
And that point will definitely and definitively be some time in the next year to twenty-five years, without a doubt. Probably.
_________________________
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski GACollectibles: It seems very....passive aggressive. DrWatson: I have known him several years and I can say with some absurdness that there isn't anything passive about him. Passive Aggressive spite posting like a B0$$, since 2007.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
#5644102 - 05/01/12 04:36 PM
Re: Gold Price Hits $500/oz.
[Re: VintageComics]
|
FlyingDonut
I sold the first CGC book ever on eBay and all I got was this stinking title.
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 08/02/02
Posts: 30415
Loc: Chicagoan Abroad
|
_________________________
Posting RulesYou may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts "I'd like to thank Chicago for single-handedly keeping the following American big-city traditions alive: smoking, drinking during the day, eating terrible food, congeniality and breasts. It's noble work you're doing, Chicago. We're all proud of you." Bill Simmons, May 28, 2010
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
Moderator: Gemma, ngcmod, Architecht, cgcmod3, cgcmod, cgcmod2, Harshen, cgcmod4, cgcmod6, cgcmod5, cgcmod7, cgcmod8, CCGmod0, Barbara T, cgcmod9, cgcmod10, cgcmod11, cgcmod12
|
|