• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

How many complete copies of Tec 27 and Action 1 exist?
0

60 posts in this topic

My guess is that if there really are three to four times as many Action 1s as are on the CGC census, these raw copies are likely held primarily by older collectors.

 

If so, we should see more copies being graded and coming to market as these collectors kick the bucket. If in, say, 20 years the census hasn't significantly increased, then we'll know the 200 to 300 copy estimate was too high.

 

Of course, some of these collectors will have heirs who might prefer to keep the books rather than grading them and selling them. But at current prices, it's hard to think that will be a common course of action. My understanding is that heirs get to step up the cost basis of inherited collectibles just as they can with inherited stocks.

 

I've left strict orders that my books be used as the fuel for my Viking funeral.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For what is worth, on a back of a napkin, I estimated about one-tenth (0.1%) of published books from the war/pre war Golden Age survive to this day.

 

An analysis of Action Comics #1 from Comichron (with quote from our own Mr. Bedrock) states”only about 100 copies Action Comics #1 remain in existence..” “So the issue was still one of 200,000 — 202,000, specifically — with sales of 130,000.”

 

Depending on if you want to use the printed or sales figures, that is a survival rate of between 0.05% and 0.08%. So 0.1% might actually be closer to reality, based on comments here.

 

Now to apply a bit of statistics. Using CGC graded counts of non-restored Action #1 books the average and median grade is 4, with a standard deviation of 2.5. If you consider a normal distributed curve, this means 68% of books fall between grades 6.5 Fine + and 1.5 Fair/Good. Roughly just 15.8% of copies would be above 6.5 (and as few as 2.2% a 9 and above).

I've looked at this as well, and while your average and standard deviations are correct, the life-cycle of an average comic is to go from pristine to mid-grade to fair/poor before being tossed out. It's not a bell curve when you look at 0.5 and 1.0 because there are too many that reach that point without getting tossed (because they still have value).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Now to apply a bit of statistics. Using CGC graded counts of non-restored Action #1 books the average and median grade is 4, with a standard deviation of 2.5. If you consider a normal distributed curve, this means 68% of books fall between grades 6.5 Fine + and 1.5 Fair/Good. Roughly just 15.8% of copies would be above 6.5 (and as few as 2.2% a 9 and above).

 

Problem with this analysis is that your source information, CGC counts of non-restored Action 1s, is not a representative sample. So any extrapolation is inherently flawed.

 

My belief is that the old time collectors who bought and have held Action 1s for a significant period of time - my guess is over three decades for many copies - are likely to own copies which exceed, as a group, the median grade you see on CGC. Why? Because those guys are also the most likely group to have "upgraded" their comics over the years and to, perhaps, have been more selective in their buying and holding. [Off-setting this might the prevalence of restoration back in the 80s.]

 

Just a thought.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My guess is that if there really are three to four times as many Action 1s as are on the CGC census, these raw copies are likely held primarily by older collectors.

 

If so, we should see more copies being graded and coming to market as these collectors kick the bucket. If in, say, 20 years the census hasn't significantly increased, then we'll know the 200 to 300 copy estimate was too high.

 

How many is significant?

When the Comichron article came out CGC was 10 years old and there were 42 copies graded,

6 years later there are 66 copies graded, so it seems copies arrive at CGC at the rate of 4 per year no matter what.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My guess is that if there really are three to four times as many Action 1s as are on the CGC census, these raw copies are likely held primarily by older collectors.

 

If so, we should see more copies being graded and coming to market as these collectors kick the bucket. If in, say, 20 years the census hasn't significantly increased, then we'll know the 200 to 300 copy estimate was too high.

 

How many is significant?

When the Comichron article came out CGC was 10 years old and there were 42 copies graded,

6 years later there are 66 copies graded, so it seems copies arrive at CGC at the rate of 4 per year no matter what.

 

I'm not sure what "no matter what" means, but I'll pull a number out of a hat and say that if we haven't made it to 150 copies in 20 years, then it's unlikely there really are 200 to 300 copies still surviving.

 

I guess I'm a little skeptical that there are as many as 200 raw copies out there given the price that even a beat copy would bring. Maybe it's true that older collectors who don't need the dough are sitting on these copies. Twenty years from I would guess many of these collectors will be dead or will be putting their affairs in order with the Grim Reaper having pulled up in the driveway.

 

If by then, we're still only looking at, say, 80 or 90 copies on the census, then I think we can safely say that many fewer than 200 to 300 copies have survived.

 

All just spitballing, of course, but that's my take.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After careful consideration, I've revised my thinking on this. It would surely be known to all the longtime collectors who hold raw copies of DC 27 and A 1 what these books are now selling for. I just can't imagine that as many as 100 copies of each are still out there in old/obscure/off-radar collections, given that the cheapest complete copies will go for over 200k now. I'm thinking the number of existing copies might be less than 200 as to each book.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My guess is that if there really are three to four times as many Action 1s as are on the CGC census, these raw copies are likely held primarily by older collectors.

 

If so, we should see more copies being graded and coming to market as these collectors kick the bucket. If in, say, 20 years the census hasn't significantly increased, then we'll know the 200 to 300 copy estimate was too high.

 

How many is significant?

When the Comichron article came out CGC was 10 years old and there were 42 copies graded,

6 years later there are 66 copies graded, so it seems copies arrive at CGC at the rate of 4 per year no matter what.

 

I'm not sure what "no matter what" means, but I'll pull a number out of a hat and say that if we haven't made it to 150 copies in 20 years, then it's unlikely there really are 200 to 300 copies still surviving.

 

I guess I'm a little skeptical that there are as many as 200 raw copies out there given the price that even a beat copy would bring. Maybe it's true that older collectors who don't need the dough are sitting on these copies. Twenty years from I would guess many of these collectors will be dead or will be putting their affairs in order with the Grim Reaper having pulled up in the driveway.

 

If by then, we're still only looking at, say, 80 or 90 copies on the census, then I think we can safely say that many fewer than 200 to 300 copies have survived.

 

All just spitballing, of course, but that's my take.

 

No matter what meant pre/post million dollar copies, it seems that they are consistently (if slowly) being graded as the few new copies surface and as old collectors sell.

 

Since there are 66 now, it seems highly unlikely that there will only be 90 total in 20 more years, I would love to make a bet on that, but doubt we'll even remember this conversation in 20 years.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My guess is that if there really are three to four times as many Action 1s as are on the CGC census, these raw copies are likely held primarily by older collectors.

 

If so, we should see more copies being graded and coming to market as these collectors kick the bucket. If in, say, 20 years the census hasn't significantly increased, then we'll know the 200 to 300 copy estimate was too high.

 

How many is significant?

When the Comichron article came out CGC was 10 years old and there were 42 copies graded,

6 years later there are 66 copies graded, so it seems copies arrive at CGC at the rate of 4 per year no matter what.

 

I'm not sure what "no matter what" means, but I'll pull a number out of a hat and say that if we haven't made it to 150 copies in 20 years, then it's unlikely there really are 200 to 300 copies still surviving.

 

I guess I'm a little skeptical that there are as many as 200 raw copies out there given the price that even a beat copy would bring. Maybe it's true that older collectors who don't need the dough are sitting on these copies. Twenty years from I would guess many of these collectors will be dead or will be putting their affairs in order with the Grim Reaper having pulled up in the driveway.

 

If by then, we're still only looking at, say, 80 or 90 copies on the census, then I think we can safely say that many fewer than 200 to 300 copies have survived.

 

All just spitballing, of course, but that's my take.

 

No matter what meant pre/post million dollar copies, it seems that they are consistently (if slowly) being graded as the few new copies surface and as old collectors sell.

 

Since there are 66 now, it seems highly unlikely that there will only be 90 total in 20 more years, I would love to make a bet on that, but doubt we'll even remember this conversation in 20 years.

 

I lot of us on the GA side of the forum won't remember tomorrow. :insane:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How many of each were printed?

 

1 mil?

 

How many copies did the early dealers go thru in the 60s-70s?

 

Time after time I feel like I get reminded of the massive amount of stupid people out there.

 

Perhaps this means there are plenty still out there, or plenty getting thrown out or ruined by storage method/abandonment.

 

I'd guess unaccounted ones would be in collections that will be sold by heirs/estates by the year 2050 (no one left who would have been a potential collecting adult in 1970.

 

Perhaps the ones that are hidden somewhere have been hidden so long they could never be found.

 

The more I think of it the more I see how no one could know.

 

I'd take whatever number gator says and then double it safety's sake.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How many of each were printed?

 

1 mil?

 

How many copies did the early dealers go thru in the 60s-70s?

 

 

 

I'd take whatever number gator says and then double it safety's sake.

 

 

Doubt it would be in that region...probably more like 200-300k

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MSU, I'm sure of. LoC, I think. UC Riverside, I don't think so. tOSU, no idea. Could be anywhere, though.

 

Can you explain these acronyms for non-Americans ?

 

LoC is Library of Congress, got that one.

 

Thanks.

 

Michigan State University has an extensive comic connection.

 

The Library of Congress has a copy.

 

University of California at Riverside has a large comic collection but not an Action 1.

 

The Ohio State University is famous for its comic art collection, and hascomics as well.

 

Many other Universities without any specific emphasis on comic books have them. The University of Oregon, for example holds Gardner Fox's papers, including 600 comics. It would not shock me if some of the highly endowed University libraries with rare book collections have some valuable comics.

 

I would also not be shocked if museums like the Smithsonian or Lucas' new LA museum have an Action 1.

Geppi's Museum has a raw copy, or at least they still have it up on their website, which is a court edition copy apparently.

http://comiccoverage.typepad.com/comic_coverage/2009/04/exhibit-a-action-comics-1.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heck, thinking about it, I'd be interested to know what institutional collections have an Action 1.

 

MSU, I'm sure of. LoC, I think. UC Riverside, I don't think so. tOSU, no idea. Could be anywhere, though.

 

According to this article, MSU does not have an Action #1

 

"The MSU comic book collection, which MSU professor and pop culture enthusiast Russel Nye started in 1970, boasts many prized rarities, including Walt Disney’s Comics & Stories #1 (1940) and Wonder Woman #1 (1942). However, it does lack some of the most valuable comic books ever published, including Action Comics #1 (1938), Detective Comics #27 (1939), and Marvel Comics #1 (1939). Fortunately, you can read those stories in some of the library’s many reprint editions."

 

Article

 

Picture

 

However, this copy is noted to be on loan from the MSU Special Collections. Someone will need to call or email them to confirm:

 

Phone: (517) 884-6471

spc@mail.lib.msu.edu

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Picture

 

However, this copy is noted to be on loan from the MSU Special Collections. Someone will need to call or email them to confirm:

 

 

:idea:

Yes, somebody probably borrowed it years ago and never bothered to return it, figuring that they could sell it for a lot more than whatever the standard maximum fine is for a lost library book. lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heck, thinking about it, I'd be interested to know what institutional collections have an Action 1.

 

MSU, I'm sure of. LoC, I think. UC Riverside, I don't think so. tOSU, no idea. Could be anywhere, though.

 

According to this article, MSU does not have an Action #1

 

"The MSU comic book collection, which MSU professor and pop culture enthusiast Russel Nye started in 1970, boasts many prized rarities, including Walt Disney’s Comics & Stories #1 (1940) and Wonder Woman #1 (1942). However, it does lack some of the most valuable comic books ever published, including Action Comics #1 (1938), Detective Comics #27 (1939), and Marvel Comics #1 (1939). Fortunately, you can read those stories in some of the library’s many reprint editions."

 

Article

 

Picture

 

However, this copy is noted to be on loan from the MSU Special Collections. Someone will need to call or email them to confirm:

 

Phone: (517) 884-6471

spc@mail.lib.msu.edu

 

 

 

that picture is of a reprint
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heck, thinking about it, I'd be interested to know what institutional collections have an Action 1.

 

MSU, I'm sure of. LoC, I think. UC Riverside, I don't think so. tOSU, no idea. Could be anywhere, though.

 

According to this article, MSU does not have an Action #1

 

"The MSU comic book collection, which MSU professor and pop culture enthusiast Russel Nye started in 1970, boasts many prized rarities, including Walt Disney’s Comics & Stories #1 (1940) and Wonder Woman #1 (1942). However, it does lack some of the most valuable comic books ever published, including Action Comics #1 (1938), Detective Comics #27 (1939), and Marvel Comics #1 (1939). Fortunately, you can read those stories in some of the library’s many reprint editions."

 

Article

 

Picture

 

However, this copy is noted to be on loan from the MSU Special Collections. Someone will need to call or email them to confirm:

 

Phone: (517) 884-6471

spc@mail.lib.msu.edu

 

 

 

that picture is of a reprint

 

Well, there we go. It doesn't appear they have one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
0