• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

With technology scattering pop culture like never before...
1 1

266 posts in this topic

...is modern OA going to be as widely collected in the future as BA and SA is now?

Most people over about 35 were limited in what they could be exposed to. The internet, as we know it today , did not really arrive until around 1996 or so.

So anyone in the 35 and above age group were limited as kids as to what was available. It was not much different since the early '50's when young boys and girls were introduced to TV, until just about the end of the century.

We had TV, radio, movies, magazines, books, and comics. Board games, outside play (do kids do that anymore?) professional sports. You get the idea.

Now video games, the internet - computers, inter active stuff here or soon on its way. Cell phones. Netflix. Cable with 300 channels.

The options are stunning.

So with all the scattering of kids and young adults attention, what does that mean for the hobby 15, 20 years out?

I don't know. Not sure. After all, the mania surrounding super hero movies seems to have catapulted them to increased popularity. Will that offset it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...is modern OA going to be as widely collected in the future as BA and SA is now?

 

I think we can all guess that one. Readership down, fragmentation up as you say... I'm sure modern pieces will get valuable too but en masse one wouldn't think it would get nearly as much attention as the old stuff. At the end of the day, comics' best days are behind them and not ahead of them... the value in a $5 book that takes ten minutes to read and frankly may not even be interesting (10th reboot of the same character, I'm looking at you..) especially to today's 12 year old, just isn't really there.

 

Not to say there aren't great modern books... but its a different world out there and sure, they have been crowded off the stage a little bit, and it only stands to reason that younger people will collect what younger people are into, sooner or later.

 

I think you can see a bit of that at play in the magic the gathering art thread - that art having shot way up in price in the last five years, partly because it appeals to wide mass of younger people.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...is modern OA going to be as widely collected in the future as BA and SA is now?

 

I think the answer is obvious: no. Peoples' interests have been splintered into an infinite # of different directions since 1996 due to advances in technology and communications which has enabled an explosion of content/information and the distribution thereof. Pretty much nothing is as popular as it used to be, whether we're looking at comic book circulations or TV ratings or even market shares of former category killers like Coca-Cola, Budweiser, McDonald's, etc., as we've seen huge increases in the number of new competitors across just about every product category (goods, food/beverage, services, media/entertainment, etc.) over the past 20 years.

 

Comics are no different, and it's unfortunate that Marvel went bust and comic circulations went into a tailspin just as all this other content was ramping up in popularity - I feel we lost that next generation of collectors starting in 1996. Yes, the industry has rebounded from the lows of the late '90s/early '00s, but, no, it's never going to be as popular as it once was, just as no new TV show is going to garner the ratings that were achievable when there were only 3 or 4 major networks and a smattering of cable stations. And, the comic industry has evolved as well - first we got TPBs, then we got digital distribution, and, as with other industries, the product became more fragmented and niche - I'm sure there have been more indie comics published in the last decade than we ever saw in the '80s or '90s. Which has definitely helped bring in new readers and such (e.g., teenage girls reading manga), but, empirically, the propensity for females to collect OA is much lower then men, and I'm not sure that people who read TPBs or digital comics are going to make that leap into collecting back issues and then OA (the traditional path for probably 98%+ of OA collectors out there) in the numbers that previous generations did.

 

As for the market impact, it almost surely means, IMO, that the next generation of OA collectors will not have the numbers nor the aggregate financial resources to clear the market at ever-escalating price levels. Whether that becomes clear 5 or 15 or 25 or 30 years from now, I have stopped trying to guess. Yes, I know some will caveat that this is not a huge hobby/market and the addition of a few very deep pockets among the next generation could really change the outlook. But, I think even in that scenario, the demographic imbalance is so stark that, at best, it would only prop up certain segments of the market (probably just the very high end). 2c

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Comichron publishes the monthly comic book sales data.

 

Here's the data for November, 2016: http://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales/2016/2016-11.html

 

The Top selling comic was Batman, which sold 121,000 units to distributors. I don't know what percentage of them actually were sold to readers/collectors.

 

Interestingly enough, the records for most comics ordered in a single month since 1997 (the year Diamond became the exclusive distributor) was August of 2016.

 

http://www.comichron.com/vitalstatistics/diamondrecords.html

 

So, last year was the strongest sales year for comics in probably 20 years. Take that for what it's worth.

Edited by PhilipB2k17
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am with you Gene on the high end B+/A/ A+ material. Historic and note worthy art is going to escalate. I think that market will be less dependent on us rapid core of OA lover and collectors. Your going to have investors and out of hobby coming into that segment in increasing numbers.

So yeah, I would be very surprised if it did not continually increase in value, soaring to many multiples of today's (in my mind)somewhat crazy numbers.

 

That leaves what, about another 95% of the market that may see steady decreases in prices as time goes on?

 

We already know that about, (name your figure; mine is around 95), of everything produced in entertainment is mediocre and worse.

 

Then we are looking at a decline of value of the majority of OA out there in the future.

 

Maybe that's a good thing. The prices I see at auctions for some mid to late 70's, early 80's Marvel stuff, by 2nd and 3rd tier artists just don't seem sustainable to me.

 

But I am probably the last guy to pay attention to. Almost 10 years ago I though the press and grade game and resub resub resub, etc., would be the ruination of many a comic book value. I said back then by 2013 or so we'll see it's impact. We obviously never did.

 

I still think it is insane to pay tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands more for a .2 uptick in a grade, especially for pressed altered books. But I could not have been more wrong. For now at least. Maybe for ever.

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am with you Gene on the high end B+/A/ A+ material. Historic and note worthy art is going to escalate. I think that market will be less dependent on us rapid core of OA lover and collectors. Your going to have investors and out of hobby coming into that segment in increasing numbers.

So yeah, I would be very surprised if it did not continually increase in value, soaring to many multiples of today's (in my mind)somewhat crazy numbers.

 

That leaves what, about another 95% of the market that may see steady decreases in prices as time goes on?

 

We already know that about, (name your figure; mine is around 95), of everything produced in entertainment is mediocre and worse.

 

Then we are looking at a decline of value of the majority of OA out there in the future.

 

Maybe that's a good thing. The prices I see at auctions for some mid to late 70's, early 80's Marvel stuff, by 2nd and 3rd tier artists just don't seem sustainable to me.

 

To be clear, I think that 95% of the market is definitely screwed (to some extent) and the top 5% may or may not be screwed (again, talking over the long-term). Not to mention, what is considered the top 5% will almost surely evolve over time. There is little doubt in my mind that some of what is considered A/top-5% material today will fall by the wayside in the coming years/decades.

 

Gen Xers as a cohort are young enough that it's possible we could have another 10-15 years of the market going from strength to strength. That said, talking to and observing a lot of my similarly-aged peers in the hobby, I see a lot of signs of people either already having slowed down, are slowing down, or plan to slow down in the not-too-distant future. Even those who are still buying like drunken sailors I would wager are already well past "Peak OA" (the point where they have spent >50% of all the money they will ever spend in the hobby), which, by definition, means that the bulk of us are on the downswing of our spending careers. And, it can happen suddenly - speaking for myself, 2015 was one of my biggest spending years ever (2011, 2013 and 2015 were all similar in magnitude), and then in 2016 I pretty much spent nothing net of sales (in fact, sales very narrowly exceeded purchases).

 

Will new money/new blood continue to come into the hobby to pick up the slack? So far it definitely has. But, if you look at the broader demographic/generational/actuarial picture, it's bound to not be enough at some point. No use in denying the math - some of the most prominent voices in the hobby, none of whom you'd associate with having a pessimistic or bearish outlook, will readily admit this...at least off the record.

 

Anyway, all of which means, at least to me, that one should just buy art to appreciate and enjoy it, because, if you expect to be around for the long-run and intend to hang on to your art, there's no guarantee that the kind of experience we've seen over the last 20-30 years will be repeated, even on a lesser scale, over the next 20-30 years. 2c

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with everything that is said here. But when it comes to the future of the hobby, I think prices and the health of the hobby are two different things. Like Gene says, and has argued many times before, no one can predict the future as where prices are going, plus, today's generations are not as wealthy as yesterday's. Although I'm more educated than my parents, I do not have the wealth that they do (and they don't have the wealth of more established Americans either :P ) But what the hobby has going for it is the "bug."

 

We all talk about "getting bit by the bug," this influenza that has us spending more than we should on a non-essential item. This bug isn't an isolated occurrence. That bug, I believe, is going to keep the hobby healthy.

 

If we want this hobby to survive, if we want the next generations to buy what we own, to appreciate what we own, we have to pass that bug on to them. I think we are a little hesitant because the more people that enter in the hobby (or, "the market") means more competition and higher prices. But why does this have to exclusively be a bad thing? I think one of the unintentional consequence to Felix's podcast experiment is spreading that bug. Not that I time it or anything, but usually the week before a podcast is released, I feel deflated about the hobby, its costs, and how I can't find the art I really want. Then Felix releases the podcast and that gets me going again. We need to spread that enthusiasm to keep the hobby going.

 

Like most of you, I collected comics as a kids. My only "investment" comics were those foil-hologram-3D-embossed-die-cut covers of the 90s (leave me alone! I was a kid then!). That crash left me pessimistic about collectibles. But then happened? CGC came along and -- love it or hate it-- revitalized the comic collecting hobby. Who would thunk we would've seen the kind of prices on comics that we do today?

 

Sure, the skyrocketing prices of OA makes it vulnerable to a crash, possibly leading to its sudden death, but there might be something that doesn't exist now that might give the hobby a push and keep interest and prices healthy.

 

As an aside, when we go to a comic shop, we see different tiers of books for sale -- the new releases, the back issues, and the wall books -- to be broad. A lot of it doesn't sale, and not all of it has to to keep the shop's doors open. Now imagine a comic book shop, only it's stocked with only OA. Maybe Anthony Snyder's warehouse is a prototype. At this OA shop you have the "wall" art and the "dollar bin" art. Just because no one is buying from the dollar bin, doesn't mean the shop folds.

 

To be clear, its not the fragmentation of interests that worry me, it's the reluctance to recruit new members to the OA hobby/market. (or am I wrong? Are we rushing and getting pledges?)

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To be clear, its not the fragmentation of interests that worry me, it's the reluctance to recruit new members to the OA hobby/market. (or am I wrong? Are we rushing and getting pledges?)

 

 

I just think people have to get there on their own. targeted recruitment if you want to call it that does little or nothing. if interesting things are shared and an excitement builds within that person organically, that's what you want. One cannot overestimate how resistant most people are to getting into something new (and some of the reasons for that are totally understandable). I mean... everyone here has done it to some extent going from comics to art, but those are close cousins and for most of us it took many years of appreciating the one before we even considered the other

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think people are missing a major piece of this puzzle, globalization. What you will lose in direct love and dedication from American youth when it comes to comics and comic art, I believe through the movies and the general cultural export you will offset those losses with gains in Europe and emerging Asian markets. Most of my direct sales for art go overseas these days, even with a strong dollar. Im not just talking England and France either. I think as the "geek culture" that has dominated the US for the last few years fully translates abroad, those collectors (that I have seen) will start to gravitate to art and high dollar comics in general. Its the last (and maybe greatest) American export, our culture and in specific our pop culture.

 

Yeah, they will have their own products as well. But I think keeping the medium and the field in general relevant to a wider audience I think keep this hobby and field in a good place for the next few decades at least.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To be clear, its not the fragmentation of interests that worry me, it's the reluctance to recruit new members to the OA hobby/market. (or am I wrong? Are we rushing and getting pledges?)

 

 

I just think people have to get there on their own. targeted recruitment if you want to call it that does little or nothing. if interesting things are shared and an excitement builds within that person organically, that's what you want. One cannot overestimate how resistant most people are to getting into something new (and some of the reasons for that are totally understandable). I mean... everyone here has done it to some extent going from comics to art, but those are close cousins and for most of us it took many years of appreciating the one before we even considered the other

 

And you're right. Of course, I didn't mean literal recruitment, I guess I meant more like expressing the our joy of the hobby to other collectible enthusiasts or comic book fans. For example, I frequent many cons and have made friends with people while waiting in line for artists. Those friends are often just comic readers. At some point it becomes clear that I'm an OA collector, and I talk about the hobby, etc. Then next thing I know these comic readers are paying for sketches and buying OA, although not at the rate that we do. So "recruiter" is not the best word choice, but rather a "booster."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think people are missing a major piece of this puzzle, globalization.

 

There are two great white hopes when it comes to the hobby: (1) globalization and (2) ultra-rich/fine art crowd buyers. I don't think people are missing this piece of the puzzle at all; most people (including myself) just don't see these groups taking the hobby up in sufficient numbers to fully replace the existing collector base (at current or ever-escalating price levels) as the latter ages out in the coming years/decades. 2c

Link to comment
Share on other sites

most people (including myself) just don't see these groups taking the hobby up in sufficient numbers to fully replace the existing collector base (at current or ever-escalating price levels) as the latter ages out in the coming years/decades. 2c

 

Either way, it will be interesting to see. (I am fairly neutral to which scenario will play out.)

 

I wonder what exactly is the size of the current collector base? I have a feeling it may be larger than some people would think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder what exactly is the size of the current collector base? I have a feeling it may be larger than some people would think.

 

Yes, which is why it will be even harder to replace the current collector base as they age out than people think!!!

 

The market has been able to absorb a Doc Dave collection here, a Frank Darabont collection there, and hopefully Ethan Roberts' heirs will get a nice payday from the upcoming Heritage sale. But, what happens when we inevitably start getting those kinds of collections in every auction cycle? And when the people who have been buying these liquidating collections to date become sellers themselves? If the top 100 collectors liquidate their collections over a 25-year timeframe, that's the equivalent of having a big collection hitting the market every quarter for 25 years, in addition to everything else (and the reality is that there will be times in the future that liquidations get clustered together).

 

At some point, the demographics are going to really come to the fore. We might not really feel it for another 5, 10, 15 years (though, I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take that long), but it's practically a mathematical inevitability at some point. Not to mention, we haven't seen a real whale of a collection hit the market in a long time. And before anyone mentions Tony Christopher, let's remember that this collection was sold at nickels on today's dollar at a time when the collector base was a lot younger and had a lot more runway ahead of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

See, im not hoping for the "whale" scenario at all, Oleg isn't gonna be paying me 850 for my late 80s Romeo pages no matter how much oil he pumps. I'm just saying that I've personally seen nearly 1/2 of all of my art sales originate over seas, from multiple European and Asian countries. You see what I like, it's purely American based dudes in tights and capes. I believe that diffusion and cultural adoption has occurred and will occur more completely as time goes on. That "emerging" market has done emerged to some extent and I think it continues.

 

 

I think we will also see more stratification as well. Common bronze and copper pages will stagnate price wise like you see with Buscema Conan and lesser Pollards and the like. But the exceptional unique image, the splash, or just truly representative panel pages will continue the growth trend we have seen over the last 10 years. The ride will continue for those, the rest have hit their stop and will hang there for a while. When prices start lowering I think those will be the ones to feel the effect. The exceptional will continue their ascent for decades. It might slow, but I don't see it giving back anytime soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

See, im not hoping for the "whale" scenario at all, Oleg isn't gonna be paying me 850 for my late 80s Romeo pages no matter how much oil he pumps. I'm just saying that I've personally seen nearly 1/2 of all of my art sales originate over seas, from multiple European and Asian countries. You see what I like, it's purely American based dudes in tights and capes. I believe that diffusion and cultural adoption has occurred and will occur more completely as time goes on. That "emerging" market has done emerged to some extent and I think it continues.

 

 

Question: are your overseas buyers middle aged foreigners? Middle age expats? Or european and asian teens?

 

If they are middle aged and currently in the buying pool, I think you have to discount them completely in looking at demographics because they will get just as old just as fast.

 

On the other hand, if they are teenagers or in their 20s, I can see where you're coming from with your argument.

 

Ultimately, I think readership in those foreign countries is what's most important. What's that like? I don't get the sense that's any great chunk of business, but I have zero clue about that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can some of you people that have thought deeply about this explain the reasoning into why high end, big money fine art dealers would enter into the hobby in sufficient numbers to make a large impact?

 

From what I know of such circles, it is largely appreciation that makes them do it, but it's also about status. Is someone accustomed to acquiring fine art from acknowledged masters going to feel a status bump for acquiring a Wrightson, Kirby, Davis, or Raymond?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can some of you people that have thought deeply about this explain the reasoning into why high end, big money fine art dealers would enter into the hobby in sufficient numbers to make a large impact?

 

From what I know of such circles, it is largely appreciation that makes them do it, but it's also about status. Is someone accustomed to acquiring fine art from acknowledged masters going to feel a status bump for acquiring a Wrightson, Kirby, Davis, or Raymond?

 

 

its just never going to happen. They collect their own stuff and comic oa and fine art are as different as comic collecting and book collecting.

 

Very few from here are going to go out and purchase a really expensive first edition novel (sure there might be a couple) and very few hardcore novel collectors are going to start collecting comics.

 

The similarities are fairly surface level... the differences quite deep.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

See, im not hoping for the "whale" scenario at all, Oleg isn't gonna be paying me 850 for my late 80s Romeo pages no matter how much oil he pumps. I'm just saying that I've personally seen nearly 1/2 of all of my art sales originate over seas, from multiple European and Asian countries. You see what I like, it's purely American based dudes in tights and capes. I believe that diffusion and cultural adoption has occurred and will occur more completely as time goes on. That "emerging" market has done emerged to some extent and I think it continues.

 

 

Question: are your overseas buyers middle aged foreigners? Middle age expats? Or european and asian teens?

 

If they are middle aged and currently in the buying pool, I think you have to discount them completely in looking at demographics because they will get just as old just as fast.

 

On the other hand, if they are teenagers or in their 20s, I can see where you're coming from with your argument.

 

Ultimately, I think readership in those foreign countries is what's most important. What's that like? I don't get the sense that's any great chunk of business, but I have zero clue about that.

 

 

Asian and European mid 20s to late 40s usually. People out of college but not closing in on retirement...the only people who have ever in history collected anything that costs more than pocket money.

 

I think the stratification will be the overall effect on the market, not the total lowering of the tide for all ships. I think right now we have a host of buyers and relatively few sellers hence these steep price increases. As time goes on that will even out as it always does and as it evens out the desire for the top end material will remain but the mid and low tier stuff will stagnate and eventually even begin to dip.

 

Someone else brought up professional investors and firms coming into this market. I don't think it happens (could just be naive on my part) much now but I think as more track record of prices and establishment of whats desirable/blue chip occurs, we will see more and more entity buyers rather than individual buyers. Again I believe they will drive the top end of the market and ignore the middle ground, but it will bring fresh cash into the mix.

 

 

could be wrong of course, but I think my reasoning is sound and only time will tell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
1 1