When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst?

1 1

The reason why NM98 compares easily to ASM129 is because of what Ive listed earlier but mainly because its a popular character's 1st appearance on a widely distributed Marvel title.

And likewise, it had almost identical market growth measures.

Comparing it to a random XYZ character (pun intended) because it is the flavor of the moment is just baseless.

The market today is very volatile, mainly due to movie hype and false prophets. And so I wouldnt compare NM98 to a book which has been in the market for a little over a decade just because its doing well today.

 

As for NYX 3 vs NM 98 vs WD 1. Its all supply and demand. NM 98 had a massive print run around 300,000, NYX 3 (if I remember right) was around 40,000, the original WD was somewhere around 7500. That pretty much gives you all you need to know.

Not sure that your numbers are accurate, but the supply is definitely greater on NM98 than other said books

In 1986 ASM #129 was a $2.00 book.. The Punisher Mini Series took off and gave the decade plus old character a boost which by 1987 started to show promise.. By 1988 ASM 129 was a $40+ book..

The mentality in those years (1987-1990s) with common speculators was to invest in new books, but if you were wise, you wouldve bought an ASM 129 for the same price you could buy a hot B&W indie title in 1987, or a Valiant hot book in early 90s...

Same can be said about NM98.

I believe that NM98 has entered the pantheon of mega keys and will grow to be the grail that ASM 129 is today in 10-20 years time. Maybe sooner

 

 

And thats my of the day

 

Back in August of 2013 I was the underbidder on the NM 98 10.0. Both publicly and privately people told me not to be too upset, that copies would be coming out of the woodwork and that I should be glad I missed it, because there would most definitely be more 10.0s. Now, 3 years later there is still only one lone 10.0 in the census and the book has exploded because of the movie (and upcoming sequel). So, how mad should I be today that I missed this 3 years ago?

 

 

Didn't know you rolled like that. Nice to be a lawyer.

 

I am a lawyer. I live in the $1 and $2 boxes. (Like Oscar the Grouch)

 

 

Sold my soul to the god of IP... At least he didn't ask for something stupid like my marriage.

I used to do patent litigation, but as a non-science/engineering person (dropping out of my architecture major hardly counts) I always did the non-hardcore science stuff on the cases, which resulted in zero marketability when I did not make partner at my old (large) firm and was seeking exit opportunities. So now I work for the gov in a prosecutorial office. Hence I can only afford $1-$2 books...

 

As for NYX 3 vs NM 98 vs WD 1. Its all supply and demand. NM 98 had a massive print run around 300,000, NYX 3 (if I remember right) was around 40,000, the original WD was somewhere around 7500. That pretty much gives you all you need to know.

 

Not sure that your numbers are accurate, but the supply is definitely greater on NM98 than other said books

I have seen numbers more like 15K on WD quoted.

40K is probably right on NYX3.

 

As for NYX 3 vs NM 98 vs WD 1. Its all supply and demand. NM 98 had a massive print run around 300,000, NYX 3 (if I remember right) was around 40,000, the original WD was somewhere around 7500. That pretty much gives you all you need to know.

 

Not sure that your numbers are accurate, but the supply is definitely greater on NM98 than other said books

 

I have seen numbers more like 15K on WD quoted.

 

 

40K is probably right on NYX3.

December 2003 Diamond puts Nyx 3 sales at 40,040 http://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales/2003/2003-12.html. My guess is print run then is closer to 50,000 or more.

 

As for NYX 3 vs NM 98 vs WD 1. Its all supply and demand. NM 98 had a massive print run around 300,000, NYX 3 (if I remember right) was around 40,000, the original WD was somewhere around 7500. That pretty much gives you all you need to know.

 

Not sure that your numbers are accurate, but the supply is definitely greater on NM98 than other said books

 

I have seen numbers more like 15K on WD quoted.

 

 

40K is probably right on NYX3.

 

December 2003 Diamond puts Nyx 3 sales at 40,040 http://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales/2003/2003-12.html. My guess is print run then is closer to 50,000 or more.

Keep in mind, this book came out during Marvel's "print to order" days under Joe Q when they were super broke. So domestic/Diamond numbers are probably pretty accurate. There was no overprinting back in that period.

Though I guess another 10k could come from non-Diamond sales. I have no idea what the newsstand or foreign market sales would add to Diamond's numbers back then for a pretty niche title like this that didn't exactly blow up in popularity until years later the book was already cancelled.

 

As for NYX 3 vs NM 98 vs WD 1. Its all supply and demand. NM 98 had a massive print run around 300,000, NYX 3 (if I remember right) was around 40,000, the original WD was somewhere around 7500. That pretty much gives you all you need to know.

 

Not sure that your numbers are accurate, but the supply is definitely greater on NM98 than other said books

 

I have seen numbers more like 15K on WD quoted.

 

 

40K is probably right on NYX3.

 

As for NYX 3 vs NM 98 vs WD 1. Its all supply and demand. NM 98 had a massive print run around 300,000, NYX 3 (if I remember right) was around 40,000, the original WD was somewhere around 7500. That pretty much gives you all you need to know.

 

Not sure that your numbers are accurate, but the supply is definitely greater on NM98 than other said books

 

I have seen numbers more like 15K on WD quoted.

 

 

40K is probably right on NYX3.

I thought Walking Dead had much lower numbers. Like 6k or less.

#1 7k ish, #2 even less

Jim

The laws of supply and demand will always keep New Mutants 98 as valued and desired, regardless of the print run.

I would rather have a NM 98 over any of these so called rare variants released today with their sizzle to their steak only being a popular named artist, sexy pin-up cover and supposedly low print run, but otherwise no substance to the contents of the book itself.

Deadpool is a popular former tier 2 supporting character who is now a feature headliner, being a Top 10 popular character in all of comics today.

I doubt if the character will fall into obscurity. He may get to that "jumping the shark" oversaturation, or fall slightly off the charts, but will never go away.

I agree with you on value, but I'd take nearly all of these current artists over that hack Liefeld.

I agree with you on value, but I'd take nearly all of these current artists over that hack Liefeld.

The only thing I can say is that X-23 has been slowly growing in popularity and exposure in the comics for the last 20 years.

 

Well, not quite 20 years since NYX only started back in late 2003.

I remember it being quite a hot book when it first came out and then cooling off for several years after that. Looks like most of the rapid price increase jut took place during the past 2 or 3 years.

I picked up a perfect looking copy for something like only $5 back about 5 or 6 years ago during its extended cool down period.

Only problem is that I've got absolutely no idea where it is in my collection as I just tossed it in with everything else assuming it was just worthless drek, which it basically was at the time.

I would rather have a NM 98 over any of these so called rare variants released today with their sizzle to their steak only being a popular named artist, sexy pin-up cover and supposedly low print run, but otherwise no substance to the contents of the book itself.

I agree with you on value, but I'd take nearly all of these current artists over that hack Liefeld.

I think Rick's point was that NM98s value is in the books content and popularity, which he prefers over the modern variant artist driven popularity value of say a JSC 1:200 X-men variant or something.

(and Chip, I agree on the hack of Liefeld, if NM98s value was on it's artistic content, and not DPool's 1st app, it'd be in the $1 bin.... )

I would rather have a NM 98 over any of these so called rare variants released today with their sizzle to their steak only being a popular named artist, sexy pin-up cover and supposedly low print run, but otherwise no substance to the contents of the book itself.

 

I agree with you on value, but I'd take nearly all of these current artists over that hack Liefeld.

 

I think Rick's point was that NM98s value is in the books content and popularity, which he prefers over the modern variant artist driven popularity value of say a JSC 1:200 X-men variant or something.

 

(and Chip, I agree on the hack of Liefeld, if NM98s value was on it's artistic content, and not DPool's 1st app, it'd be in the $1 bin.... )

The variant bubble is much more likely to burst than NM 98 ever being a cheap book again. NM 98 is based purely on the 1st appearance of a very popular character. We come back to supply and demand again, not actual printed numbers. Deadpool is hot right now and has been for 5 or 6 years, maybe more. If the character cools down, NM 98 will lose some value, but it has a solid foundation of comic presence, and will have at least 2 movies (likely 3) when all is said and done. As long as the character is in demand, there will be people looking to get the book.

Cover variants are based purely on manufactured rarity, and generally have nothing to do with book content. Sure you get that magic combination (or the chance of it) where a key lines up with a popular variant, but for the most part it is just about the cover. That is not a solid foundation, and people buy it to have it, and there is a much smaller fan pool for any given artist vs. a character. Also the picture is not really exclusive, go to any con and reproductions will be available.

I would rather have a NM 98 over any of these so called rare variants released today with their sizzle to their steak only being a popular named artist, sexy pin-up cover and supposedly low print run, but otherwise no substance to the contents of the book itself.

 

I agree with you on value, but I'd take nearly all of these current artists over that hack Liefeld.

 

I think Rick's point was that NM98s value is in the books content and popularity, which he prefers over the modern variant artist driven popularity value of say a JSC 1:200 X-men variant or something.

 

(and Chip, I agree on the hack of Liefeld, if NM98s value was on it's artistic content, and not DPool's 1st app, it'd be in the $1 bin.... )

 

The variant bubble is much more likely to burst than NM 98 ever being a cheap book again. NM 98 is based purely on the 1st appearance of a very popular character. We come back to supply and demand again, not actual printed numbers. Deadpool is hot right now and has been for 5 or 6 years, maybe more. If the character cools down, NM 98 will lose some value, but it has a solid foundation of comic presence, and will have at least 2 movies (likely 3) when all is said and done. As long as the character is in demand, there will be people looking to get the book.

 

Cover variants are based purely on manufactured rarity, and generally have nothing to do with book content. Sure you get that magic combination (or the chance of it) where a key lines up with a popular variant, but for the most part it is just about the cover. That is not a solid foundation, and people buy it to have it, and there is a much smaller fan pool for any given artist vs. a character. Also the picture is not really exclusive, go to any con and reproductions will be available.

Good post.

I think a lot people don't get how big Deadpool,Harkey Quinn and The Walking Dead are with Millenials.

I see the same thing with the CW shows.

Lots of people who were never into comics love those CW shows like Flash and Arrow.

Flash reminds me of the Hulk series from the late 1970's in that it brought in a lot of new fans.

NYX #3 is artificially inflated because of movie hype and Laura becoming the "new" Wolverine. Unsustainable prices.

It's funny when you read old forums on this book from few years ago saying it is over valued and I wouldnt buy it , there's too many copies ... and but you never know in a few years it might be $500 in 9.8 ...

The next movie it will go up again and after a while the movies won't even matter ...Deadpool will be auch big character like Wolverine that everyone will want his first appearance in any grade ... more than right now

Pretty sure the 9.9 bubble already burst

I would rather have a NM 98 over any of these so called rare variants released today with their sizzle to their steak only being a popular named artist, sexy pin-up cover and supposedly low print run, but otherwise no substance to the contents of the book itself.

 

 

The variant bubble is much more likely to burst than NM 98 ever being a cheap book again. NM 98 is based purely on the 1st appearance of a very popular character.

Not sure what variant bubble you are referring to unless you are talking about a constantly moving bubble that keeps shifting to the next latest hot variant title.

I was reading Jamie Newbold's market report in the latest Overstreet where he did an analysis of the variant titles. Based upon his analysis, it sounds as though all variant books, without any exception, started out hot and at the top of the market, flatlined almost immediately, and then trended downwards from there as they were replaced by the next hot variant title.

So yes, NM 98 would definitely have a much longer bubble life than these so-called "rare" manufactured variants.

I would rather have a NM 98 over any of these so called rare variants released today with their sizzle to their steak only being a popular named artist, sexy pin-up cover and supposedly low print run, but otherwise no substance to the contents of the book itself.

 

 

The variant bubble is much more likely to burst than NM 98 ever being a cheap book again. NM 98 is based purely on the 1st appearance of a very popular character.

 

Not sure what variant bubble you are referring to unless you are talking about a constantly moving bubble that keeps shifting to the next latest hot variant title.

 

I was reading Jamie Newbold's market report in the latest Overstreet where he did an analysis of the variant titles. Based upon his analysis, it sounds as though all variant books, without any exception, started out hot and at the top of the market, flatlined almost immediately, and then trended downwards from there as they were replaced by the next hot variant title.

 

So yes, NM 98 would definitely have a much longer bubble life than these so-called "rare" manufactured variants.

 

The variant era has affected our industry in more ways than you can think.

Long gone are the days of having a book turn key based on significance to storyline or character appearance. A book is now hotter because it has a cool looking limited edition variant attached to it.

But thats not all. Today, most commercial books turn key because of storyline significance are more likely to be distributed accompanied by such a limited edition variant.

Think about this for a second.

Imagine an IH181, ASM129, a NM98 published alongside a limited edition variant.

How would have that affected those books popularity?

Would it make the variants more costly than they are today? or would it make the regular editions less relevant, like 2nd prints?

Either way, the variant era has changed the modern market forever, and short of having some sort of a HUGE correction, I cant imagine it going back to what it was