Brave & Bold #28: Speculation on future pricing

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It'll heat back up once the JLA films get closer

 

There is always an ebb and flow to marketplace pricing. Nothing increases forever on a straight line, it just feels that way sometimes. In the case of a scarce book like this there are fewer sales (because of fewer books) and every sale is scrutinized versus a book like AF15. There are literally dozens of sales in almost every grade and they are not all new GPA highs...

 

Your point is right though and there will likely be another surge once we start seeing Justice League trailers but probably a reduction post movie as well. If the movie does well it will likely set a new plateau post theater but the sales prices will likely be higherst (relative to the 6 month trend) before it releases.

 

Such is the way of things.

I'm not wondering about the post JLA movie pricing, I wonder about pricing 20-30 years from now.

 

This has been discussed at length in many threads, but here is my top-line POV:

 

I think when you look out that far you are bordering on largely guess-work (short of being a world-class economist and even they probably would not forecast the collectibles market - tied to popular culture and volatile in general).

 

We will be experiencing full Baby-Boomer retirement for over a decade at that point. Many of them will be passed or passing-on and their collections will flood the market. Sure, between now and then collections and books will continue to come to market, but the Baby-Boomer generation at current represents the largest purchasing group of vintage comics. All the people that were young comic readers in the 50's and 60's are what drives the Silver age market today (perfect mix of nostalgia, current popular culture reinforcement and purchasing power). As their estates are liquidated (as most estates are) their comics along with other belongs will be brought en masse to market. Once they go, the market will correct - dramatically.

 

Net, my recommendation wouldn't be to hold onto high value books more than 20 years (at most) if you are looking at maximizing your value. Of course the timeline largely varies by genre/character/book (Westerns, War, Crime, Romance, Sci-Fi Pop, Golden-Age only characters and such will go sooner), but in general current popular culture is not creating future vintage comic collectors. It is creating pop-culture junkies that jump from one fad to the next (retro, vintage, futuristic, superheroes, vampires, zombies, etc).

 

Now if you just want to own the book, you have a variety of options and purchase timelines. Depending on how old you are, I bet in 20-30 years you will be able to find some of the mega key silver age books at a large relative discount versus today (and we know they will still be around thanks to companies like CGC).

 

Just my

.

 

Some reading worth considering as a start to understanding why I drew my conclusions. Nothing definitive, but informed nonetheless.

 

Money

CRM Trends

Generational Earnings: US and CA

Forbes

Comics books have been around for nearly 100 years and have been collectible for just about as long (hence why we see surviving copies of so many books).

In another 20-30 years they will still be collectible and and still be valuable , factoring in whatever ebb and flows that occur within the overall economy. Even more so should all those mythical SA collections that countless Baby Boomers are sitting on fail to materialize either at all, or in any significant quantity (much as the once alleged housing "shadow inventory" was later shown to be a complete hoax).

-J.

It'll heat back up once the JLA films get closer

 

There is always an ebb and flow to marketplace pricing. Nothing increases forever on a straight line, it just feels that way sometimes. In the case of a scarce book like this there are fewer sales (because of fewer books) and every sale is scrutinized versus a book like AF15. There are literally dozens of sales in almost every grade and they are not all new GPA highs...

 

Your point is right though and there will likely be another surge once we start seeing Justice League trailers but probably a reduction post movie as well. If the movie does well it will likely set a new plateau post theater but the sales prices will likely be higherst (relative to the 6 month trend) before it releases.

 

Such is the way of things.

I'm not wondering about the post JLA movie pricing, I wonder about pricing 20-30 years from now.

 

This has been discussed at length in many threads, but here is my top-line POV:

 

I think when you look out that far you are bordering on largely guess-work (short of being a world-class economist and even they probably would not forecast the collectibles market - tied to popular culture and volatile in general).

 

We will be experiencing full Baby-Boomer retirement for over a decade at that point. Many of them will be passed or passing-on and their collections will flood the market. Sure, between now and then collections and books will continue to come to market, but the Baby-Boomer generation at current represents the largest purchasing group of vintage comics. All the people that were young comic readers in the 50's and 60's are what drives the Silver age market today (perfect mix of nostalgia, current popular culture reinforcement and purchasing power). As their estates are liquidated (as most estates are) their comics along with other belongs will be brought en masse to market. Once they go, the market will correct - dramatically.

 

Net, my recommendation wouldn't be to hold onto high value books more than 20 years (at most) if you are looking at maximizing your value. Of course the timeline largely varies by genre/character/book (Westerns, War, Crime, Romance, Sci-Fi Pop, Golden-Age only characters and such will go sooner), but in general current popular culture is not creating future vintage comic collectors. It is creating pop-culture junkies that jump from one fad to the next (retro, vintage, futuristic, superheroes, vampires, zombies, etc).

 

Now if you just want to own the book, you have a variety of options and purchase timelines. Depending on how old you are, I bet in 20-30 years you will be able to find some of the mega key silver age books at a large relative discount versus today (and we know they will still be around thanks to companies like CGC).

 

Just my

.

 

Some reading worth considering as a start to understanding why I drew my conclusions. Nothing definitive, but informed nonetheless.

 

Money

CRM Trends

Generational Earnings: US and CA

Forbes

 

Comics books have been around for nearly 100 years and have been collectible for just about as long (hence why we see surviving copies of so many books).

 

In another 20-30 years they will still be collectible and and still be valuable , factoring in whatever ebb and flows that occur within the overall economy. Even more so should all those mythical SA collections that countless Baby Boomers are sitting on fail to materialize either at all, or in any significant quantity (much as the once alleged housing "shadow inventory" was later shown to be a complete hoax).

 

-J.

With respect:

Ignore the inventory one way or another. The base of collectors who are spending big money on SA and older books are going into retirement. We are not replenishing them both on a economical scale (Gen Y and younger will not have the spending power per capita that a Baby Boomer does) nor are we replenishing them via the hobby as die-hard collectors.

The single biggest risk to paper hobbies is the transition to digital forums. As we move from paper to electronic communications we shift out of a large portion of the nostalgic value comics bring to current big spending collectors. Not to mention that current comic sales are not driving readership growth, nor are they necessarily driving the popularity of the mainstream hero books that garner the most value.

Ignoring these trends with a rebuttal "comics have been collectible for 100 years" is not wise economically. You know nothing is popular forever, humans will eventually move on and comics be a thing of the past just like thousands of other collectible hobbies that are long since dead.

I am just suggesting that a market pricing reset is likely to happen in our lifetimes. That is neither doom, nor gloom, but practical and very probable.

FYI - it is contradictory to argue: "Comics books have been around for nearly 100 years and have been collectible for just about as long (hence why we see surviving copies of so many books)," but then to not concede that there are large quantities held in personal collections by Baby Boomers and older collectors... Not for nothing.

It'll heat back up once the JLA films get closer

 

There is always an ebb and flow to marketplace pricing. Nothing increases forever on a straight line, it just feels that way sometimes. In the case of a scarce book like this there are fewer sales (because of fewer books) and every sale is scrutinized versus a book like AF15. There are literally dozens of sales in almost every grade and they are not all new GPA highs...

 

Your point is right though and there will likely be another surge once we start seeing Justice League trailers but probably a reduction post movie as well. If the movie does well it will likely set a new plateau post theater but the sales prices will likely be higherst (relative to the 6 month trend) before it releases.

 

Such is the way of things.

I'm not wondering about the post JLA movie pricing, I wonder about pricing 20-30 years from now.

 

This has been discussed at length in many threads, but here is my top-line POV:

 

I think when you look out that far you are bordering on largely guess-work (short of being a world-class economist and even they probably would not forecast the collectibles market - tied to popular culture and volatile in general).

 

We will be experiencing full Baby-Boomer retirement for over a decade at that point. Many of them will be passed or passing-on and their collections will flood the market. Sure, between now and then collections and books will continue to come to market, but the Baby-Boomer generation at current represents the largest purchasing group of vintage comics. All the people that were young comic readers in the 50's and 60's are what drives the Silver age market today (perfect mix of nostalgia, current popular culture reinforcement and purchasing power). As their estates are liquidated (as most estates are) their comics along with other belongs will be brought en masse to market. Once they go, the market will correct - dramatically.

 

Net, my recommendation wouldn't be to hold onto high value books more than 20 years (at most) if you are looking at maximizing your value. Of course the timeline largely varies by genre/character/book (Westerns, War, Crime, Romance, Sci-Fi Pop, Golden-Age only characters and such will go sooner), but in general current popular culture is not creating future vintage comic collectors. It is creating pop-culture junkies that jump from one fad to the next (retro, vintage, futuristic, superheroes, vampires, zombies, etc).

 

Now if you just want to own the book, you have a variety of options and purchase timelines. Depending on how old you are, I bet in 20-30 years you will be able to find some of the mega key silver age books at a large relative discount versus today (and we know they will still be around thanks to companies like CGC).

 

Just my

.

 

Some reading worth considering as a start to understanding why I drew my conclusions. Nothing definitive, but informed nonetheless.

 

Money

CRM Trends

Generational Earnings: US and CA

Forbes

 

Comics books have been around for nearly 100 years and have been collectible for just about as long (hence why we see surviving copies of so many books).

 

In another 20-30 years they will still be collectible and and still be valuable , factoring in whatever ebb and flows that occur within the overall economy. Even more so should all those mythical SA collections that countless Baby Boomers are sitting on fail to materialize either at all, or in any significant quantity (much as the once alleged housing "shadow inventory" was later shown to be a complete hoax).

 

-J.

 

With respect:

 

Ignore the inventory one way or another. The base of collectors who are spending big money on SA and older books are going into retirement. We are not replenishing them both on a economical scale (Gen Y and younger will not have the spending power per capita that a Baby Boomer does) nor are we replenishing them via the hobby as die-hard collectors.

 

The single biggest risk to paper hobbies is the transition to digital forums. As we move from paper to electronic communications we shift out of a large portion of the nostalgic value comics bring to current big spending collectors. Not to mention that current comic sales are not driving readership growth, nor are they necessarily driving the popularity of the mainstream hero books that garner the most value.

 

Ignoring these trends with a rebuttal "comics have been collectible for 100 years" is not wise economically. You know nothing is popular forever, humans will eventually move on and comics be a thing of the past just like thousands of other collectible hobbies that are long since dead.

 

I am just suggesting that a market pricing reset is likely to happen in our lifetimes. That is neither doom, nor gloom, but practical and very probable.

 

 

FYI - it is contradictory to argue: "Comics books have been around for nearly 100 years and have been collectible for just about as long (hence why we see surviving copies of so many books)," but then to not concede that there are large quantities held in personal collections by Baby Boomers and older collectors... Not for nothing.

I have posted this before, but at shows up here in Edmonton and Calgary the keys are being predominantly purchased by collectors in the 18 - 40 years old range, with the bulk going to people in the 25 - 35 yr old range. As expected, they pay top dollar for the late Bronze/Copper keys they grew up with first, but then they work their way back to older SA keys, including the big ones. There is only one boomer that is a regular buyer of keys from us. The rest go to younger collectors with decent disposable income.

The future for comics is likely going to mirror that of pulps, stamps, coins, sportscards, etc. - the key items will be considered "investment collectibles" and continue to maintain or increase in value while the common issues will drop in value. We are already seeing this transition happen.

Don't forget, the boomers will also be transferring an incredible amount of wealth to their children/grand children.Mid to late Gen Xers (a large cohort of the collecting community on the boards) and early Gen Yers should be in their peak earning years when this wealth transfer happens. It will be interesting to see where they decide to spend those funds.

It'll heat back up once the JLA films get closer

 

There is always an ebb and flow to marketplace pricing. Nothing increases forever on a straight line, it just feels that way sometimes. In the case of a scarce book like this there are fewer sales (because of fewer books) and every sale is scrutinized versus a book like AF15. There are literally dozens of sales in almost every grade and they are not all new GPA highs...

 

Your point is right though and there will likely be another surge once we start seeing Justice League trailers but probably a reduction post movie as well. If the movie does well it will likely set a new plateau post theater but the sales prices will likely be higherst (relative to the 6 month trend) before it releases.

 

Such is the way of things.

I'm not wondering about the post JLA movie pricing, I wonder about pricing 20-30 years from now.

 

This has been discussed at length in many threads, but here is my top-line POV:

 

I think when you look out that far you are bordering on largely guess-work (short of being a world-class economist and even they probably would not forecast the collectibles market - tied to popular culture and volatile in general).

 

We will be experiencing full Baby-Boomer retirement for over a decade at that point. Many of them will be passed or passing-on and their collections will flood the market. Sure, between now and then collections and books will continue to come to market, but the Baby-Boomer generation at current represents the largest purchasing group of vintage comics. All the people that were young comic readers in the 50's and 60's are what drives the Silver age market today (perfect mix of nostalgia, current popular culture reinforcement and purchasing power). As their estates are liquidated (as most estates are) their comics along with other belongs will be brought en masse to market. Once they go, the market will correct - dramatically.

 

Net, my recommendation wouldn't be to hold onto high value books more than 20 years (at most) if you are looking at maximizing your value. Of course the timeline largely varies by genre/character/book (Westerns, War, Crime, Romance, Sci-Fi Pop, Golden-Age only characters and such will go sooner), but in general current popular culture is not creating future vintage comic collectors. It is creating pop-culture junkies that jump from one fad to the next (retro, vintage, futuristic, superheroes, vampires, zombies, etc).

 

Now if you just want to own the book, you have a variety of options and purchase timelines. Depending on how old you are, I bet in 20-30 years you will be able to find some of the mega key silver age books at a large relative discount versus today (and we know they will still be around thanks to companies like CGC).

 

Just my

.

 

Some reading worth considering as a start to understanding why I drew my conclusions. Nothing definitive, but informed nonetheless.

 

Money

CRM Trends

Generational Earnings: US and CA

Forbes

 

Comics books have been around for nearly 100 years and have been collectible for just about as long (hence why we see surviving copies of so many books).

 

In another 20-30 years they will still be collectible and and still be valuable , factoring in whatever ebb and flows that occur within the overall economy. Even more so should all those mythical SA collections that countless Baby Boomers are sitting on fail to materialize either at all, or in any significant quantity (much as the once alleged housing "shadow inventory" was later shown to be a complete hoax).

 

-J.

 

With respect:

 

Ignore the inventory one way or another. The base of collectors who are spending big money on SA and older books are going into retirement. We are not replenishing them both on a economical scale (Gen Y and younger will not have the spending power per capita that a Baby Boomer does) nor are we replenishing them via the hobby as die-hard collectors.

 

The single biggest risk to paper hobbies is the transition to digital forums. As we move from paper to electronic communications we shift out of a large portion of the nostalgic value comics bring to current big spending collectors. Not to mention that current comic sales are not driving readership growth, nor are they necessarily driving the popularity of the mainstream hero books that garner the most value.

 

Ignoring these trends with a rebuttal "comics have been collectible for 100 years" is not wise economically. You know nothing is popular forever, humans will eventually move on and comics be a thing of the past just like thousands of other collectible hobbies that are long since dead.

 

I am just suggesting that a market pricing reset is likely to happen in our lifetimes. That is neither doom, nor gloom, but practical and very probable.

 

 

FYI - it is contradictory to argue: "Comics books have been around for nearly 100 years and have been collectible for just about as long (hence why we see surviving copies of so many books)," but then to not concede that there are large quantities held in personal collections by Baby Boomers and older collectors... Not for nothing.

 

I have posted this before, but at shows up here in Edmonton and Calgary the keys are being predominantly purchased by collectors in the 18 - 40 years old range, with the bulk going to people in the 25 - 35 yr old range. As expected, they pay top dollar for the late Bronze/Copper keys they grew up with first, but then they work their way back to older SA keys, including the big ones. There is only one boomer that is a regular buyer of keys from us. The rest go to younger collectors with decent disposable income.

 

The future for comics is likely going to mirror that of pulps, stamps, coins, sportscards, etc. - the key items will be considered "investment collectibles" and continue to maintain or increase in value while the common issues will drop in value. We are already seeing this transition happen.

 

Don't forget, the boomers will also be transferring an incredible amount of wealth to their children/grand children.Mid to late Gen Xers (a large cohort of the collecting community on the boards) and early Gen Yers should be in their peak earning years when this wealth transfer happens. It will be interesting to see where they decide to spend those funds.

Couple of thoughts:

- How do you know how old people are? Are you taking a poll as they make purchases? Curious how you get such specific data.

- We are talking first and foremost about high end collectibles (+$25k books and up), are you really saying you have a bevy of younger collectors with that kind of disposable income? Anything under $5k maybe, but higher than that I would find it difficult to believe (particularly in CA where the Candadian dollar is weak right now). However, it is also fair to say that this is not "truly disposable" income for that generation and they are sub-optimizing their own retirement and other savings at the expense of owning a comic book (a poor choice that may have dangerous consequences).

- Assuming there is a looming grand wealth transfer is not a solid assumption. Current average retirement savings for ages 55-64 is around $100k in US (link link 2 link 3 ) - so unfortunately there isn't a large amount of wealth accumulation that will transfer to younger generations. People are living longer and the retirement gap is growing, not the opposite. This is a very real problem in the US and it will definitely hit collectibles (and all non-living essentials) hard.

- You are comparing other collectible hobbies largely supported by the same generations (Boomers and X) and expecting future generations to follow suit with comics. We are not talking what is happening now, we are talking what will happen after 20-30 years - the analogy isn't relevant because of the generational shift that will occur. Baseball cards, stamps, pulps and even comics are not collected by children like they were in the 50's, 60's and somewhat in the 70's - that behavior drove nostalgia that turned into purchase behavior we have seen. Without a steady replenishment of young readers of PRINTED comics, the notion that they will one day become collectors of an unfamiliar format isn't a realistic expectation. Liking superhero movies and reading pop culture comics is not replicating the behavior of what happened with children in the 50's and 60's. The shift will drive a difference in nostalgia and purchase behavior long-term and unfortunately it does not bode well for vintage comics in 20-30 years.

- Early Gen Y will be transitioning OUT of peak earnings in 20-30 years, the subsequent generation will own the market. Gen Y's time to shine is in the next 10-20 years and they too do not have the purchasing power in the numbers that the Boomers or even Gen X had. It is likely that before the bust we see prices stagnate for sometime (likely 5-10 years from now).

I am not proposing the bottom will fall out overnight, but simply that the super high value books will adjust due to a reduced buying pool with less dollars than their predecessors (i.e. both less collectors and collectors with less money to spend). The big dollar books will go first, then the lower grades will adjust accordingly overtime. Sure there will be exceptions, but on relatively common books like X-men 1 and potentially even Amazing Fantasy 15, we will see a strong market adjustment. I am not saying the Blue Chip top 10 books will fall to being "worthless," that could take several generations - but I am suggesting that existing market pricing is not sustainable anywhere near where it sits today.

On the topic, I probably would have waited longer to auction this book. Nice high grade example but hitting the market before the trailers and news get hot on the JL movie...

Heritage - BB28 8.0

I am on the side of the prediction that comic books mostly will either stale or decline in 20-30 years. While some younger generation collect and do buy books, the amount of collectors who are 50+ for any higher end books starting at $1,000+ Is proqbbly 5-10/1. No I do not have polls or charts, it's a comic forum and it's just a discussion.

My generation does not have money nor do they care about collectibles. A select few who had parents in the game of collectibles followed suit but this isn't the baby boomer era where nearly everyone collected something. Newspaper comics have nose dived, it's a good example that when the generation who were around for the collectible reach their older days- the value goes with them. Yes Action comics 1 will always be desirable. As will top keys, but a lot of golden age non superhero keys/ silver age random issues will most likely stale.

Comics are here to stay, but the amount of books inflating at this rate will come to the end. Not today or tomorrow, but 20-30 years. I am still playing the game, I enjoy it. But I am not buying books expecting them to inflate year after year. I can be wrong being anyone that says they know what is going to happen is a fool. But anyways, always a great convo!

On the topic, I probably would have waited longer to auction this book. Nice high grade example but hitting the market before the trailers and news get hot on the JL movie...

 

Heritage - BB28 8.0

That book was already auctioned in Feb.

On the topic, I probably would have waited longer to auction this book. Nice high grade example but hitting the market before the trailers and news get hot on the JL movie...

 

Heritage - BB28 8.0

 

That book was already auctioned in Feb.

Ok, well it says it is up for bidding July 15, 2016...so maybe the winner is reselling or the transaction fell through?

There was a record 6.0 sale at almost 10K. Did a boardie grab it?

There was a record 6.0 sale at almost 10K. Did a boardie grab it?

Do you have a link?

I don't have a link to the sale, just the sale in registered in GPA

Jun-14-2016 $9,880 Cert# 0615965003

edit: http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_sacat=0&_nkw=brave%20bold%2028%20cgc&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&rt=nc&_trksid=p2045573.m1684

Just got this back from CGC this weekend. The new slab with the old inner well make books pop very nicely.

Just got this back from CGC this weekend. The new slab with the old inner well make books pop very nicely.

 

 

Sweet!

What do you guys think of the sale price for the BB28 CGC 8.0 that sold today at Heritage for 20 315$?

Link:

http://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/the-brave-and-the-bold-28-justice-league-of-america-savannah-pedigree-dc-1960-cgc-vf-80-cream-to-off-white-pages/a/7139-91185.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

There is a high price for entry copies and copies up to 6.0/ 6.5.

VFish copies though seem steady at around $20k.

Maybe the Cr/OW kept it lower than the other recent sales.

Truthfully, I'm betting the buyer is extremely happy.

Maybe the Cr/OW kept it lower than the other recent sales.

Or maybe the fact that the same book keeps coming back to auction over and over and over?

Or maybe the fact that the back cover has several chips missing?

Maybe the Cr/OW kept it lower than the other recent sales.

 

Or maybe the fact that the same book keeps coming back to auction over and over and over?

 

Or maybe the fact that the back cover has several chips missing?

Not a pretty BB28, regardless of the grade.

Maybe the Cr/OW kept it lower than the other recent sales.

 

Or maybe the fact that the same book keeps coming back to auction over and over and over?

 

Or maybe the fact that the back cover has several chips missing?

 

Not a pretty BB28, regardless of the grade.

Interestingly, a pedigree copy should have qualities that make it exceptional. There doesn't appear to be any for this particular copy if the scans are accurate. The test as to whether this is an exceptional copy is whether it would stand out among other copies in the same grade. Not sure this one would. It's still an 8.0 copy of a major DC SA key.

Maybe the Cr/OW kept it lower than the other recent sales.

 

Or maybe the fact that the same book keeps coming back to auction over and over and over?

 

Or maybe the fact that the back cover has several chips missing?

 

Not a pretty BB28, regardless of the grade.

Still a grade usually demands a certain price. Someone should hold on to it for a while.