Giant Size X-Men #1 for investment?

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I don't know why we are really comparing the two. The thread was about whether GSX 1 was a good investment. GSX 1 has always been a blue chip BA book. SW 1 has become one. I don't think they are in competition with each other. Probably a lot of collectors would like to have both.

 

Anyone who thinks though that the SW bubble is gonna burst is just not recognizing that the book isn't really a fad, it has just finally arrived. It doesn't matter how many copies there are, there are enough comic collectors and SW fans to soak up the supply.There isn't just one movie or even one trilogy coming out either.

 

There seems to be no end to the amount of Hulk 181's in the market, and they still fetch good dollars at every grade.

"This time will be different."

 

-J.

 

That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time.

 

But it's already deflating.

 

-J.

Not according to GPA - the all-time recorded sale for a 9.4 @$400 occurred 3 days ago and the last recorded sale of a 9.8 was the 2nd highest recorded sale (and occurred last week)? Looks like the bubble is still blowing up... (thumbs u

Uh, no. Every one of those ebay auctions you are referencing was shilled.

Meanwhile multiple 9.8 copies offered on these boards (and now ebay) sit un-sold at $1500.

That hissing sound you hear is the bubble already deflating.

-J.

I don't know why we are really comparing the two. The thread was about whether GSX 1 was a good investment. GSX 1 has always been a blue chip BA book. SW 1 has become one. I don't think they are in competition with each other. Probably a lot of collectors would like to have both.

 

Anyone who thinks though that the SW bubble is gonna burst is just not recognizing that the book isn't really a fad, it has just finally arrived. It doesn't matter how many copies there are, there are enough comic collectors and SW fans to soak up the supply.There isn't just one movie or even one trilogy coming out either.

 

There seems to be no end to the amount of Hulk 181's in the market, and they still fetch good dollars at every grade.

 

"This time will be different."

 

-J.

 

That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time.

 

But it's already deflating.

 

-J.

 

And then if it starts expanding again, what will you say about that? Are you suggesting that once deflated, the balloon can never expand again? I know that's not what you're suggesting

 

I think alternative media hype books essentially have the same life cycle and follow the same pattern. Especially the BA and newer ones.

 

-J.

 

I think the fact that it's Star Wars might change the equation a little. As I said, time will tell. Should be fun to watch

"This time will be different."

-J.

-slym

Prices on 9.4, 9.6, and 9.8 copies of Star Wars #1 have increased by 100% to 150% over the last 45 days. Something's up, and without knowing for sure what exactly is up, spending money on them at a price anywhere near current levels is a big risk. Given that the movie announcement didn't cause this big a spike in prices, something else being at play is more likely.

I need to read through that Star Wars thread before I say much more.

At best, this looks like pure movie hype. And everyone who bought high grade copies of Avengers 4 during the run-up to the Captain America and Avengers movies knows EXACTLY what that looks like a year or three later.

There are simply too many copies of Star Wars #1 in existence to support this huge a price jump in this short a period of time. It is completely unsustainable. Now's a great time to try flipping the issue though.

 

I'll help out a little here...... specifics will have to be provided by another.... but here is a "lead".......circa early 90's, OPG reduced the prices ACROSS THE BOARD for everything Fine and Very Good ...the Fine's were reduced from 50% of NM to approx. 33% of NM ......a substantial drop that was warranted due to actual market conditions. As many of you know, OPG is reluctant to drop prices prematurely.....

Indeed. This happened a couple of times in the 90's, culminating in the great bloodletting of 1998.

Compare the prices for everything...literally every book that was valued above $10....from the 1997 OPG to the 1998 OPG in the grades that aren't NM.

From the 1997 to the 1998 OPG, everybody's books that weren't NM took a substantial dive in valuation..some as much as 50%. It was quite shocking to those who didn't follow the market and put a lot of stock in the OPG, but totally expected by those who did (follow the market.)

And, really, OPG ceased to be an accurate reflection of the market long since. The last time it was really "accurate" was around 1990. After that, they simply couldn't keep up.

Perspective is necessary...in the beginning, values were (average) 50%/75%/100% for "Good/Fine/Mint." For example, Batman #1 was $100/$135/$175. By around 1980, that didn't work, and the prices became 33%/66%/100%. Later, that was adjusted to 20%/60%/100%.

The percentages haven't really been constant for more than 3-4 years or so. But nothing compared to the bloodbath of the 1998 OPG.

I would not bet my retirement on comic book appreciation. Buy them to read and enjoy (hobby money). If you make something great! If not, no loss it was entertainment.

 

There are lots of sources of financial advice and I doubt that any of them will recommend comics for long term savings.

 

 

Just so i'm clear, i've never stated anyone should invest in comics for their retirement.

 

If a person doesn't have a retirement plan, savings, 401k, etc then they sure better not be investing in comics.

 

The question is for investment...not for retirement.

 

Buying an AF15 now for FMV and holding it for 15 years....that would be an investment.

An AF15, maybe.

A GSXM #1, well, unless you're talking about a 9.9 copy the dollar amount involved is too inconsequential to be considered for a 15 year 'investment' that will make any meaningful difference for someone.

I don't know why we are really comparing the two. The thread was about whether GSX 1 was a good investment. GSX 1 has always been a blue chip BA book. SW 1 has become one. I don't think they are in competition with each other. Probably a lot of collectors would like to have both.

 

Anyone who thinks though that the SW bubble is gonna burst is just not recognizing that the book isn't really a fad, it has just finally arrived. It doesn't matter how many copies there are, there are enough comic collectors and SW fans to soak up the supply.There isn't just one movie or even one trilogy coming out either.

 

There seems to be no end to the amount of Hulk 181's in the market, and they still fetch good dollars at every grade.

 

"This time will be different."

 

-J.

 

That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time.

Exactly. Same thing with Guardians of the Galaxy with at least two more movies on the way, and a weekly animated TV series to be shown on Disney Channel.

All bubbles burst, but enjoy the ride because Star Wars and GOTG have at least 5 years as being players now before their bubbles burst.

 

My point is Star Wars and Guardians of the Galaxy are/will be going on an upward trend these next few years, while GSX 1 will just sit there.

 

With no movement with GSX 1 we will find the inflation alone will make an investor lose money on the deal.

Money now is worth less in 5 years.

An example is

if you spend $3000 on a GSX 1 CGC 9.8 now, and its still worth $3000 in 5 years, than you would have lost money because of inflation.

 

I don't think you're giving GSX1 enough credit in its entirety, because you're only focusing on the 9.8, and people know that 9.8's can fluctuate probably more than any other grade. It would be fair to mention that the 2013 average for GSX1 9.6 was $2,347, but the 90 day average is $2,846. Obviously, the book didn't sit, and that's true for most of the grades for this particular book. I doubt this modest growth has anything to do with movie hype, and that's a profound sign that this book is way more solid than SW 1.

If you want to debate that SW 1 is the better book to flip for the time being, than I would have to agree with you, but saying that GSX1 has had no movement just isn't true.

A GSXM #1, well, unless you're talking about a 9.9 copy the dollar amount involved is too inconsequential to be considered for a 15 year 'investment' that will make any meaningful difference for someone.

Yep. I bought my 9.4 copy in 2001 for $1000 and it might be worth $1500 today going by GPA sales from the last year. That's an APR increase of around 3%, which is about the same as the inflation rate.

I would not bet my retirement on comic book appreciation. Buy them to read and enjoy (hobby money). If you make something great! If not, no loss it was entertainment.

 

There are lots of sources of financial advice and I doubt that any of them will recommend comics for long term savings.

 

 

Just so i'm clear, i've never stated anyone should invest in comics for their retirement.

 

If a person doesn't have a retirement plan, savings, 401k, etc then they sure better not be investing in comics.

 

The question is for investment...not for retirement.

 

Buying an AF15 now for FMV and holding it for 15 years....that would be an investment.

 

An AF15, maybe.

 

A GSXM #1, well, unless you're talking about a 9.9 copy the dollar amount involved is too inconsequential to be considered for a 15 year 'investment' that will make any meaningful difference for someone.

Yes, I stated earlier that GSXM 1 isn't a major key to "invest" in.

A GSXM #1, well, unless you're talking about a 9.9 copy the dollar amount involved is too inconsequential to be considered for a 15 year 'investment' that will make any meaningful difference for someone.

 

Yep. I bought my 9.4 copy in 2001 for $1000 and it might be worth $1500 today going by GPA sales from the last year. That's an APR increase of around 3%, which is about the same as the inflation rate.

Your 9.4 copy is worth more than $1500.

A GSXM #1, well, unless you're talking about a 9.9 copy the dollar amount involved is too inconsequential to be considered for a 15 year 'investment' that will make any meaningful difference for someone.

 

Yep. I bought my 9.4 copy in 2001 for $1000 and it might be worth $1500 today going by GPA sales from the last year. That's an APR increase of around 3%, which is about the same as the inflation rate.

 

Your 9.4 copy is worth more than $1500.

Looks like the 12-month GPA is $1625...still not high enough to claim I've beaten inflation.

With that return on your 'investment', you could step up to a premium diaper brand.

A GSXM #1, well, unless you're talking about a 9.9 copy the dollar amount involved is too inconsequential to be considered for a 15 year 'investment' that will make any meaningful difference for someone.

 

Yep. I bought my 9.4 copy in 2001 for $1000 and it might be worth $1500 today going by GPA sales from the last year. That's an APR increase of around 3%, which is about the same as the inflation rate.

 

Your 9.4 copy is worth more than $1500.

 

Looks like the 12-month GPA is $1625...still not high enough to claim I've beaten inflation.

But the 90 day average is $1,850. Not to mention that the last sale was $2,025.

And let's talk about things like fungibility, storage, insurance, movement, etc.

When investing in mutual funds and the like, there is no need to worry about which shares you get. A like share is a like share is a like share (obviously talking about shares of the same class.)

But with comics, every single one is unique, no two exactly alike, and this is moreso the further back in time you go. A 9.8 isn't the same as a 9.8 isn't the same as a 9.8...and that's the same grade. Each one is different, each one is unique. Each one is going to be worth a different amount, dependent on these factors.

And then, even when graded, they have to be stored properly, and guarded against theft and damage for the entire time of the "investment." Mutual funds...? Not so much. Hard to steal in the traditional sense. Impossible to damage by dropping your quarterly earnings statement on the floor.

Storage, insurance, these are real costs that eat into whatever potential profit there may be.

And so, after 20 years, you've made a 10% annualized rate of return. Great!

So, your 9.6 GSXM #1 that you bought for $3500 in 2015 and held for 20 years is now worth $23,500 (extremely unlikely, but let's go with it.)

Did you beat inflation?

Did you keep the book from being damaged?

And, most importantly...how is $20,000 in 2035 going to help you in any significant way? You would have to buy 50 of them, and hope for the same return, and the same results (not at all likely), to have any significant impact on your retirement. Because the reality is, $1,000,000 isn't that much NOW, all things considered (remember...you have to LIVE on that money.) By 2035, it will probably buy significantly less.

And that's assuming an extremely optimistic 10% annualized return, AND that inflation won't have killed it all, AND not counting fees and costs.

Some of you guys need to join the mutual fund forum.

I collect comics for the enjoyment of them. The enjoyment includes tracking their value and hoping for a nice return.

This discussion of where to invest your money and what is better is pointless here.

If anyone is solely investing their money in comics without any other types of financial planning...well I feel sorry for them when they reach retirement age.

I don't think anyone here is saying let me throw all my money into comics for my future.

Comics like any investment can be risky. Try your hand at the stock market and see how you like it...unless you are buying blue chips.

Which goes back to my previous comments about buying blue chip comics for an investment. Sure there is risk but the data shows steady returns.

Diversify your savings. I'm heading back to the mutual fund forum. See you there

In other words...buy them because you like them. If you make money, hey, bonus. Otherwise....

I don't think anyone here is saying let me throw all my money into comics for my future.

That would be incorrect.

There are several people thinking to do that exact thing; you can read it between the lines.

I don't think anyone here is saying let me throw all my money into comics for my future.

 

That would be incorrect.

 

There are several people thinking to do that exact thing; you can read it between the lines.

That's too bad. I'm not one of them.

I don't know why we are really comparing the two. The thread was about whether GSX 1 was a good investment. GSX 1 has always been a blue chip BA book. SW 1 has become one. I don't think they are in competition with each other. Probably a lot of collectors would like to have both.

 

Anyone who thinks though that the SW bubble is gonna burst is just not recognizing that the book isn't really a fad, it has just finally arrived. It doesn't matter how many copies there are, there are enough comic collectors and SW fans to soak up the supply.There isn't just one movie or even one trilogy coming out either.

 

There seems to be no end to the amount of Hulk 181's in the market, and they still fetch good dollars at every grade.

 

"This time will be different."

 

-J.

 

That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time.

 

But it's already deflating.

 

-J.

 

And then if it starts expanding again, what will you say about that? Are you suggesting that once deflated, the balloon can never expand again? I know that's not what you're suggesting

 

I think alternative media hype books essentially have the same life cycle and follow the same pattern. Especially the BA and newer ones.

 

-J.

SW1 in 9.8 was a $500 book for the last couple of years. I would bet it's not going to sell for that price on a regular basis for a very long time, if ever. Regardless of the number of copies. It's at least a $1000 book for the next couple of years.