Darkseid vs Standard and Poor's

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Winner decided by closing price/12 month avg % gain on 3/1/17. All proceeds go to charity of winners choice.

As of 3/1/15

Forever People #1 9.6-$650

SPY-$210.66

So you're gonna track this for 2 years?!?!

I suppose all bets are off if there's some kind of Darkseid announcement just prior the end of the tracking period. A movie/TV announcement may skew the average.

Hey, it's all in fun. Some great church, temple, or charity is going to get $200 and someone will walk away with bragging rights. There are no losers. Only winners.

Besides, we need at least one case study to counter the stocks > comics crowd. They can both go up and they can both go down. I do love the stock market, but you have to respect the guy who keeps 30%+ of his assets in comics. What can I say? I admire the chutzpah. If it wasn't for Mrs Blazincomics and Blazincomics Jr I might be one of those guys.

Aside from a movie pop I also like the cost basis I got of $650. There was an FP 1 9.8 that went for $1000 a few auctions ago on Comiclink which is low. For some reason that book performs poorly at their auctions. It's a great EBay book and the Twin Cities 9.8 that sold on Heritage is the all time GPA high. Comiclink gets some great prices at their auctions, just not with this book.

The timing may work in my favor. Two years from now we will be in the heart of DC's new movie lineup. We also have a Presidential election in 2016. Im not sure how well markets perform the first year or two of new leadership, especially when the markets are priced high already.

It's funny, I don't have a strong opinion on FP1 either way.

I think I will put together a group of SA keys to track in this thread that is more representative of the group think "can't miss" books that I think are likely to be poor investments going forward.

Top of my list would be AF 15 in CGC 3.0 for 10k. I think that is going to look a little foolish down the road.

I've noticed early Thor books have been climbing pretty good

Journey Into Mystery 83 is slow and steady. 4.0's did a little better, but up around 5% in most grades last year. It's a good book to own.

85 has sold off a bit, but that will get some heat before the next movie. It's like that with most of the big villain books.

103 is going haywire.

I might not be a buyer of AF 15 here, but it's hard to bet against it. Metropolis will snatch those up if it looks like a soft auction.

It's funny, I don't have a strong opinion on FP1 either way.

 

I think I will put together a group of SA keys to track in this thread that is more representative of the group think "can't miss" books that I think are likely to be poor investments going forward.

 

Top of my list would be AF 15 in CGC 3.0 for 10k. I think that is going to look a little foolish down the road.

Top of my list are Nova #1 and Ms. Marvel #1. People who are buying CGC 9.8s today for those prices are going to wish they hadn't. The Hughes variant of Spider-Gwen #1 selling for $300 raw this past week is another fine example of a book I'd happily sell short if there were such a thing for comics.

I do love the stock market, but you have to respect the guy who keeps 30%+ of his assets in comics. What can I say? I admire the chutzpah.

What about the guy who keeps 80-95% of his net worth in comics or comic art? Because, in all seriousness, I know some guys like that. :whatthe:

I do love the stock market, but you have to respect the guy who keeps 30%+ of his assets in comics. What can I say? I admire the chutzpah.

 

What about the guy who keeps 80-95% of his net worth in comics or comic art? Because, in all seriousness, I know some guys like that. :whatthe:

Slabs stacked high like an emergency shelter with a sleeping bag tucked inside.

I do often wonder when I see pictures of a book like an AF15 shot in what looks like a grungy trailer with big wheels and garbage in the background, how about the ones shot on dirty sheets, Picts of gnarled feet in the shot on nasty, dirty tiles. What is the logic behind owning such high priced books and living like that?

As promised, my SA key issue price snapshot. I pulled the 90-day GPA average for the books, and I tried to choose grades that had more than a single entry. That actually was pretty limiting. For example, I was going to list FF1, but it just didn't have much in GPA for the last 3 months. I also included GSX1 and IH181, since they are very liquid books that many people are invested in.

For the SA books, I focused on the lower grades (mostly 3.0 and 5.0). That is where there was enough current data to be useful, and also where I think most people are realistically putting their money. I picked higher grades for the BA books, since they are readily available and trading hands in those grades.

AF15 CGC 3.0 $9786

CGC 5.0 $18075

AV1 CGC 3.0 $1141

CGC 5.0 $2500

IH1 CGC 4.5 $11325

CGC 6.0 $21995

ASM1 CGC 2.5 $2629

CGC 5.0 $5053

Xmen1 CGC 3.0 $1820

CGC 5.0 $2921

JIM83 CGC 3.0 $2400

CGC 5.0 $3999

DD1 CGC 3.0 $670

CGC 5.0 $1047

GSX1 CGC 8.0 $780

CGC 9.2 $1302

IH181 CGC 8.0 $1697

CGC 9.4 $3497

I'm really interested to see how this works out. One point to remember when running the comparison. There are costs related to both holding (insurance) and selling (fees) comics, and there are benefits (dividends - S&P 500 around 1.75% year) to holding stock.

Yeah, I should have asked for a 10% advantage for the selling fees.

I think that the actual bet is pretty much a wash, odds-wise. The time frame is too short for the natural advantages that stocks have to really kick in.

I do think that the thread will be a very interesting one to dig up in 5 years though.

I'm really interested to see how this works out. One point to remember when running the comparison. There are costs related to both holding (insurance) and selling (fees) comics, and there are benefits (dividends - S&P 500 around 1.75% year) to holding stock.

I do love the stock market, but you have to respect the guy who keeps 30%+ of his assets in comics. What can I say? I admire the chutzpah.

 

What about the guy who keeps 80-95% of his net worth in comics or comic art? Because, in all seriousness, I know some guys like that. :whatthe:

 

Slabs stacked high like an emergency shelter with a sleeping bag tucked inside.

 

I do often wonder when I see pictures of a book like an AF15 shot in what looks like a grungy trailer with big wheels and garbage in the background, how about the ones shot on dirty sheets, Picts of gnarled feet in the shot on nasty, dirty tiles. What is the logic behind owning such high priced books and living like that?

I don't get this either.

The FP 9.6 on Comiclink sold for $708. It won't be in GPA, but its a data point that looks good against the $650 cost basis of this bet.

The FP 9.6 on Comiclink sold for $708. It won't be in GPA, but its a data point that looks good against the $650 cost basis of this bet.

unless you were the seller and netted $637.

As promised, my SA key issue price snapshot. I pulled the 90-day GPA average for the books, and I tried to choose grades that had more than a single entry. That actually was pretty limiting. For example, I was going to list FF1, but it just didn't have much in GPA for the last 3 months. I also included GSX1 and IH181, since they are very liquid books that many people are invested in.

 

For the SA books, I focused on the lower grades (mostly 3.0 and 5.0). That is where there was enough current data to be useful, and also where I think most people are realistically putting their money. I picked higher grades for the BA books, since they are readily available and trading hands in those grades.

 

AF15 CGC 3.0 $9786

CGC 5.0 $18075

 

AV1 CGC 3.0 $1141

CGC 5.0 $2500

 

IH1 CGC 4.5 $11325

CGC 6.0 $21995

 

ASM1 CGC 2.5 $2629

CGC 5.0 $5053

 

Xmen1 CGC 3.0 $1820

CGC 5.0 $2921

 

JIM83 CGC 3.0 $2400

CGC 5.0 $3999

 

DD1 CGC 3.0 $670

CGC 5.0 $1047

 

GSX1 CGC 8.0 $780

CGC 9.2 $1302

 

IH181 CGC 8.0 $1697

CGC 9.4 $3497

Where are the DC SA keys? That is where the better opportunity will be over the next few years IMHO as they are starting from a much lower value point.

Winner decided by closing price/12 month avg % gain on 3/1/17. All proceeds go to charity of winners choice.

 

As of 3/1/15

 

Forever People #1 9.6-$650

 

SPY-$210.66

Why go with the 2nd appearance of Darkseid instead of his 1st appearance?

I mostly put together the list to test the conventional wisdom that SA Marvels are a can't miss investment from here, which I disagree with strongly.

The DC keys don't have that same conventional wisdom consensus.

For that reason, I agree with you that they have a better chance of doing well as a investment.

Where are the DC SA keys? That is where the better opportunity will be over the next few years IMHO as they are starting from a much lower value point.

Fees aren't a part of the bet.

The FP 9.6 on Comiclink sold for $708. It won't be in GPA, but its a data point that looks good against the $650 cost basis of this bet.

 

unless you were the seller and netted $637.