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Total Existing Copies of AF #15
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Guesstimated total existing copies of Amazing Fantasy #15  

4 members have voted

  1. 1. Guesstimated total existing copies of Amazing Fantasy #15

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485 posts in this topic

I've heard varying guesstimates over the years as to the total number of copies of AF #15 that still exist.

 

The CGC census currently shows a total of 2,279 CGC graded AF #15s (across Universal, Qualified, Sig Series, and Restored). Due to the CPR game, the actual number of unique copies graded is obviously less than 2,279; perhaps the unique count is 1,750 or 2,000?

 

I was curious to see what others would guesstimate to be the total number of copies of AF #15 that still exist (Note: I plan to post similar polls for Action #1 and Hulk #181 in the Gold and Bronze forums respectively).

 

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Population was greater when these books came to market therefore more copies exist.No paper drives from the war efforts,just kids reading them and passing them on to friends.I have owned multiple copies of this issue but never had an Action 1,not that i wouldn't of loved to.I would say there is quite a few hoarded in basements and closets yet to appear.

Edited by comicjack
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Population was greater when these books came to market therefore more copies exist.No paper drives from the war efforts,just kids reading them and passing therm on to friends.I have owned multiple copies of this issue but never had an Action 1,not that i wouldn't of loved to.I would say there is quite a few hoarded in basements and closets yet to appear.

 

Does anyone know how the supposed print runs compare between Action #1 vs. AF #15 vs. Hulk #181?

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According to Comichron.com average sales figures for TTA and TOS were around 185,000 copies an issue in 1961, in 1962 the sales figures for JIM, ST, TTA and TOS had dropped to 125-139K an issue on average, jumping back up to 188-189K for 1963. These are sales figures, presumably print runs would have been larger, but remainders mostly destroyed. I found no numbers for AAF and AF, but it's probably safe to assume that the sales of AF #15 were under 200K.

 

While there were no wartime paper drives or comic scares that would have increased attrition, comics were still largely a disposable medium at the time. The increased interest in collecting through the 1960s would have slowed down longer term attrition, but I imagine copies were still getting tossed on a regular basis into the 1970s. I started collecting ( saving) comics around 1969 when I was 10 years old, and even then it was a year or so before I made even a slight attempt to keep them in decent shape. Before that I read comics fairly often, but any of those my parents purchased for me eventually ended up getting tossed in the trash along with the newspapers and old magazines. In the early 70s I would check out yard and garage sales in the neighborhood looking for old comics. It was rare to find anything more than a few years old. I don't think I ever saw any with 10¢ covers at one of those, at least not superhero books.

 

The point of all this, is that I imagine attrition rates in the early 60s were quite high for comic books, and that at least 90% of what was purchased off the stands back then is long gone, and I would be shocked if there were 20 thousand copies still extant.

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My vote was the 10X or more option. My guess is that there are still plenty of copies out there in collections that have been tucked away for a long time now as AF #15 has always been a big SA book and highly sought after.

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According to Comichron.com average sales figures for TTA and TOS were around 185,000 copies an issue in 1961, in 1962 the sales figures for JIM, ST, TTA and TOS had dropped to 125-139K an issue on average, jumping back up to 188-189K for 1963. These are sales figures, presumably print runs would have been larger, but remainders mostly destroyed. I found no numbers for AAF and AF, but it's probably safe to assume that the sales of AF #15 were under 200K.

 

While there were no wartime paper drives or comic scares that would have increased attrition, comics were still largely a disposable medium at the time. The increased interest in collecting through the 1960s would have slowed down longer term attrition, but I imagine copies were still getting tossed on a regular basis into the 1970s. I started collecting ( saving) comics around 1969 when I was 10 years old, and even then it was a year or so before I made even a slight attempt to keep them in decent shape. Before that I read comics fairly often, but any of those my parents purchased for me eventually ended up getting tossed in the trash along with the newspapers and old magazines. In the early 70s I would check out yard and garage sales in the neighborhood looking for old comics. It was rare to find anything more than a few years old. I don't think I ever saw any with 10¢ covers at one of those, at least not superhero books.

 

The point of all this, is that I imagine attrition rates in the early 60s were quite high for comic books, and that at least 90% of what was purchased off the stands back then is long gone, and I would be shocked if there were 20 thousand copies still extant.

 

Thanks for the info!

 

In your Action #1 post in the Gold forum, I believe you noted that there were 130K reported Action #1 sales, and in your Hulk #181 post in the Bronze forum I believe you noted that there were 200K reported sales of Hulk #181. Based on your comments above, it would appear reasonable to assume that sales for AF #15 may have been somewhere in between those two figures.

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According to Comichron.com average sales figures for TTA and TOS were around 185,000 copies an issue in 1961, in 1962 the sales figures for JIM, ST, TTA and TOS had dropped to 125-139K an issue on average, jumping back up to 188-189K for 1963. These are sales figures, presumably print runs would have been larger, but remainders mostly destroyed. I found no numbers for AAF and AF, but it's probably safe to assume that the sales of AF #15 were under 200K.

 

While there were no wartime paper drives or comic scares that would have increased attrition, comics were still largely a disposable medium at the time. The increased interest in collecting through the 1960s would have slowed down longer term attrition, but I imagine copies were still getting tossed on a regular basis into the 1970s. I started collecting ( saving) comics around 1969 when I was 10 years old, and even then it was a year or so before I made even a slight attempt to keep them in decent shape. Before that I read comics fairly often, but any of those my parents purchased for me eventually ended up getting tossed in the trash along with the newspapers and old magazines. In the early 70s I would check out yard and garage sales in the neighborhood looking for old comics. It was rare to find anything more than a few years old. I don't think I ever saw any with 10¢ covers at one of those, at least not superhero books.

 

The point of all this, is that I imagine attrition rates in the early 60s were quite high for comic books, and that at least 90% of what was purchased off the stands back then is long gone, and I would be shocked if there were 20 thousand copies still extant.

 

Thanks for the info!

 

In your Action #1 post in the Gold forum, I believe you noted that there were 130K reported Action #1 sales, and in your Hulk #181 post in the Bronze forum I believe you noted that there were 200K reported sales of Hulk #181. Based on your comments above, it would appear reasonable to assume that sales for AF #15 may have been somewhere in between those two figures.

 

The Action #1 number is from Jack Liebowitz's testimony from DC's lawsuit against Fox for Wonderman in 1939. The Hulk figure is an extrapolation from two data points ( I could not find 1974 numbers), Hulk had 264K in monthly sales in 1969, and about 200K just prior to the television show in 1978 ( as sales were reported to have increased 35% to approx. 275K due to the success of the show). Marvel sales declined through the early to mid 70s, so I'm guessing that 1974 figures were closer to 200K than 264K.

 

It's been speculated that the drop in overall comic sales in 1962 was due to the recent price increase ( allowances not immediately going up 20% along with the cover price). Marvel data for the early 60s is incomplete, but by 1963 when superheroes were taking over the fantasy titles, the sales for those had rebounded to the 180-190K numbers. As the story is that AF #15 was a surprising success, warranting a Spider-man title in short order, I'll credit it with a sales potential of closer to 190K than 140K, though even a sell out would have been capped by a print run indicative of a failing title on it's last issue.

 

So, yes, a number in between would be a very reasonable assumption.

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I can remember as a youth back in the day, the Sunday paper was part of the ritual, mom grabbed all the shopping and coupon stuff, dad pulled out the sports, and us kids would have to take turns owning the funnies. Usually the paper made it to the trash by Monday but for some reason the funnies section would be around longer. I think comics were more than disposable media and many felt the desire to retain, re read, and share.

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I can remember as a youth back in the day, the Sunday paper was part of the ritual, mom grabbed all the shopping and coupon stuff, dad pulled out the sports, and us kids would have to take turns owning the funnies. Usually the paper made it to the trash by Monday but for some reason the funnies section would be around longer. I think comics were more than disposable media and many felt the desire to retain, re read, and share.

 

Not as disposable as yesterday's newspaper for sure, but more so than say back issues of National Geographic, which for some reason people felt compelled to stack up in their garage for decades.

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I voted 5x because the pricing of them have given even raw collectors enough incentive to have them slabbed to sell.

 

We see them raw all the time here. We know they are out there in large numbers, but the price is still strong because for every copy, raw or slabbed, you know there are 1000 people that want it.

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I'd go with 10x census. But there has to be a lot of attrition due to mom throwing them out, water damage, young family members ruining them, critter damage, fire damage. Plus even if there were 200k printed how many did not sell off the stands and were remaindered and or then destroyed.

 

I'd vote for more than you think are still out there, but at the same time a lot less than a maximum number printed. Plus it was a new charactor but it was not in a #1 issue form. So I would bet Spidey #1s out number AF 15s by 5 to 1 or maybe even 20 to 1.

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The CGC census currently shows a total of 2,279 CGC graded AF #15s (across Universal, Qualified, Sig Series, and Restored). Due to the CPR game, the actual number of unique copies graded is obviously less than 2,279; perhaps the unique count is 1,750 or 2,000?

 

I started to write a novel in response to this :) but simplifying:

 

Entries have hit the census at a rate of roughly 160 copies/yr. We know that entries > copies, but never mind that now.

 

Number of entries/yr shows no sign of accelerating even though prices of even low grades have increased roughly 5x (or greater) over the lifetime of CGC. THAT is interesting. hm

 

If rate of entry accelerated to 250 copies/yr, it'd take 40 years for 10k additional copies to hit the census. Even if rate of entry increased to a whopping 500 copies/yr, it'd take 20 years for 10k additional copies to hit the census.

 

***

 

You know, I came into this thinking, well... assume 200k sell-through at maximum (and I'd agree that's a safe maximum), and given that this is JUST 8 years before the first Oversteet hit, it's not outrageous to assume that 10%-ish of sold copies survived.

 

But the fact that very substantially rising prices has not had a measurable impact on the rate that copies have been slabbed is more than a little interesting. hm

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"Due to the CPR game, the actual number of unique copies graded is obviously less than 2,279"

 

What is/was the CPR game?

 

Given the investment nature of this book, I would think that at least 1/3 to 1/2 of remaining copies have been CGC graded. Since whether your copy is a 5.0 or a 6.0 could mean a $10,000 difference in value, I think most owners of unslabbed copies choose to get them slabbed.

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