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504 posts in this topic

First, you said this:

with the exception of course being the #8 editorial variant which only has about 30 known surviving copies

 

Followed it with this:

t's a safe bet the majority of them are known to the market at this point.

 

Then this:

I'd be surprised if even 100 total copies have survived

 

And this:

Only 30 copies of a potentially four figure, 25 year old book on the census? I'd actually be surprised if there were even another 60-70 copies floating around out there raw.

 

And, once again, this:

I said I'd be surprised if there were more than 100 copies out there total

 

 

If that's not what you meant, you sure have a interesting way of making your point.

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First, you said this:

with the exception of course being the #8 editorial variant which only has about 30 known surviving copies

 

Followed it with this:

t's a safe bet the majority of them are known to the market at this point.

 

Then this:

I'd be surprised if even 100 total copies have survived

 

And this:

Only 30 copies of a potentially four figure, 25 year old book on the census? I'd actually be surprised if there were even another 60-70 copies floating around out there raw.

 

And, once again, this:

I said I'd be surprised if there were more than 100 copies out there total

 

 

If that's not what you meant, you sure have a interesting way of making your point.

 

....and all of these statements are very obviously couched as my "opinions". The parts that you have omitted are where I clearly explained the bases of such. (thumbs u

 

-J.

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First, you said this:

with the exception of course being the #8 editorial variant which only has about 30 known surviving copies

 

Followed it with this:

t's a safe bet the majority of them are known to the market at this point.

 

Then this:

I'd be surprised if even 100 total copies have survived

 

And this:

Only 30 copies of a potentially four figure, 25 year old book on the census? I'd actually be surprised if there were even another 60-70 copies floating around out there raw.

 

And, once again, this:

I said I'd be surprised if there were more than 100 copies out there total

 

 

If that's not what you meant, you sure have a interesting way of making your point.

 

....and all of these statements are very obviously couched as my "opinions". The parts that you have omitted are where I clearly explained the bases of such. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

Opinions based on the "data" that you've collected. I wasn't going to quote the entire posts. I don't believe that I took any of those "out of context".

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I still say that it is irrelevant what a dealer says he would "price" a book at. He could price it at a million it doesn't mean it would sell for that.
I mean no offense but, it appears that this is a part of the problem, I've noticed that your arguments often contain logical fallacies. To say this is irrelevant is wrong. Each of these dealers is well respected and both have a reputation for moving books rather than "showing" books. Both dealers have a solid appreciation of the market and would price a book according to their appreciation of the market. You may not place much value in their assessment. However, their expert opinions are relevant and saying otherwise is wrong. It is a logical fallacy, it's a form of the "moving the goalposts" or "shifting the bar" fallacy. The fact that two reputable dealers agree does add some support for the assertion that the Cerebus is worth more. You may not give it much weight it but it is relevant.

 

Honestly these buzz words that you toss around don't really have much meaning, and further, they are not representative of anything I have actually said. It's great that you respect dealer opinions. I do as well. However I also have enough knowledge and insight to form my own opinions. And no I do not see any actual evidence beyond "dealer opinion", that a cerebus 1 9.2 has a higher FMV than a hulk 181 9.2.

 

But if you want to dredge that non-point up again I would respectfully ask that you take it back over the the bronze section.

 

With regards to the sandman 8 book in question, it's nice to see some people at least allowing for the possibility that there "may" be as few as 100 surviving copies. There were indeed 600 copies "printed" but they were not all distributed. And it was a very long time before they were given any kind of significant value over the regular issue. You can see the progression on the GPA chart. I have never once said "there are only 100 copies". I have only said that I believe this to be a reasonable statement based on X, Y, and Z facts. I have no doubt there are raw copies lingering around here and there in collections. But again, I certainly would not say there are hundreds upon hundreds. The book is just too valuable, and too many people know the book is too valuable for there not to be more copies on the census and available at any given time for sale on the open market for this to be true IMO. "IMO" being the operative part of that sentence. (thumbs u

 

-J.

lol

 

:popcorn:

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I still say that it is irrelevant what a dealer says he would "price" a book at. He could price it at a million it doesn't mean it would sell for that.
I mean no offense but, it appears that this is a part of the problem, I've noticed that your arguments often contain logical fallacies. To say this is irrelevant is wrong. Each of these dealers is well respected and both have a reputation for moving books rather than "showing" books. Both dealers have a solid appreciation of the market and would price a book according to their appreciation of the market. You may not place much value in their assessment. However, their expert opinions are relevant and saying otherwise is wrong. It is a logical fallacy, it's a form of the "moving the goalposts" or "shifting the bar" fallacy. The fact that two reputable dealers agree does add some support for the assertion that the Cerebus is worth more. You may not give it much weight it but it is relevant.

 

Honestly these buzz words that you toss around don't really have much meaning, and further, they are not representative of anything I have actually said. It's great that you respect dealer opinions. I do as well. However I also have enough knowledge and insight to form my own opinions. And no I do not see any actual evidence beyond "dealer opinion", that a cerebus 1 9.2 has a higher FMV than a hulk 181 9.2.

 

But if you want to dredge that non-point up again I would respectfully ask that you take it back over the the bronze section.

 

With regards to the sandman 8 book in question, it's nice to see some people at least allowing for the possibility that there "may" be as few as 100 surviving copies. There were indeed 600 copies "printed" but they were not all distributed. And it was a very long time before they were given any kind of significant value over the regular issue. You can see the progression on the GPA chart. I have never once said "there are only 100 copies". I have only said that I believe this to be a reasonable statement based on X, Y, and Z facts. I have no doubt there are raw copies lingering around here and there in collections. But again, I certainly would not say there are hundreds upon hundreds. The book is just too valuable, and too many people know the book is too valuable for there not to be more copies on the census and available at any given time for sale on the open market for this to be true IMO. "IMO" being the operative part of that sentence. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

Value is irrelevant for comics that are part of a "permanent" collection and aren't going anywhere. CGC cases do not offer special protection that is better than anything else available to collectors, but they sure take up more space.

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. The opinions of those who have disagreed with me have largely consisted of what collectors and people "might have done" or "might be doing" with this particular book. This is nothing but speculation.

 

Sorry, but you're wrong.

 

And, a better statistician than I could use the data you cite to prove it.

 

No need to rely on opinion.

 

My opinion is based on what can actually be observed in the market place, and the statistical sample therein. I am NOT basing my opinion on essentially unseen shadow inventory that cannot be proven either way that it even exists. You are suggesting that "it must exist, how can it not?". My response to that is: "Because the statistical sample size that we have seen suggests that it does not".

 

 

-J.

 

 

 

 

The census and "statistical sample" represents only a small portion of the larger picture. Drawing conclusions using that small portion is like suggesting the Mona Lisa is a painting of a cow, because the only portion you see is a small patch of brown dress.

 

It is necessarily flawed "methodology."

 

lol Not at all. Take Heritage for example. One of the preeminent auction houses for comic books (and other knick knacks). They have offered some of the best and rarest comic books from across all ages.

 

How many Sandman #8 editorials has Heritage auctioned in the last 15 years? Sandman 8, editorial, the most coveted and hardest to find of all the issues in the run?

 

3.

 

Two slabbed, and one raw.

 

That's it.

 

There's but one sample size for you that supports my position and tends to dispute yours. :insane:

 

I don't deny that there is a probability that another 200% of what we see might still be ou

 

 

t there in the raw. I am simply saying that I highly doubt it is significantly more than that based on what we see (and don't see) coming to market.

 

-J.

 

 

Heritage specializes in vintage comics. They don't give a hoot about taking moderns in on consignment. They actually turn them down, unless it's a tag along with vintage books.

 

 

 

 

Anecdotal. :P

 

Next!

 

 

Oh okay. So I guess all those dozens and dozens of copies of the killing joke, NM 98, sandman 1, walking dead, the nam, Longshot , punisher limited, 1, punisher regular 1, etc etc etc on there are all just figments of my imagination ?

 

And you really think if I called and said "hey heritage I have one of only 3 copies of a sandman 8 editorial in a 9.8 to auction will u take it?" U think that answer would be "no"? Come on. lol

 

-J.

 

The first time I called heritage I had one cgc book that they previously sold for $1500.00, I asked about consigning my book as it looked like a good consignment site. I was asked if I had other books as they wanted 5k dollars of books minimum to create a selling account. So yes they denied me consigning one book worth $1500.00. Unless they have changed there minimum, if you called them with one modern book worth 2k. They would say no we do not want it.

 

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I'd be amazed if there weren't still 500 in existence. In fact I can't see any reason why more than 10% of the print run was lost or destroyed.

 

Very few people are looking for this book which is why there are so few on the census.

 

The fact you just paid $1,000 for a 9.6 doesn't make it rare, no matter how many times you repeat yourself.

 

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With regards to the sandman 8 book in question, it's nice to see some people at least allowing for the possibility that there "may" be as few as 100 surviving copies. There were indeed 600 copies "printed" but they were not all distributed. And it was a very long time before they were given any kind of significant value over the regular issue. You can see the progression on the GPA chart. I have never once said "there are only 100 copies". I have only said that I believe this to be a reasonable statement based on X, Y, and Z facts. I have no doubt there are raw copies lingering around here and there in collections. But again, I certainly would not say there are hundreds upon hundreds. The book is just too valuable, and too many people know the book is too valuable for there not to be more copies on the census and available at any given time for sale on the open market for this to be true IMO. "IMO" being the operative part of that sentence. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

Did you not see the photos of Wizard that I posted, or not care because it wasn't GPA? The cover date for Sandman 8 is Aug 89. By Apr 92 it was a $100 comic in Wizard. That's only about 2.5 years. It's a much faster progression of values than Amazing Spider-man 300, New Mutants 98, or Walking Dead 1 demonstrated. I don't have the 90 or 91 OPG to check, and that was the oldest Wizard I had.

 

Multiple owners of the book have come forward to say they have it raw and see no reason to pay someone $20 to put it in a plastic case for them. The book was originally marketed toward adult collectors. The "mature readers" label, art style, and themes pretty much kept it out of the dirty hands of children who were wrestling each other for the one-panel Cable preview in New Mutants 86.

 

I think this comic suffers for having a variant that is not immediately visible from the outside, and not even immediately identifiable to the uninitiated (as opposed to a Mark Jewelers insert or pages-out-of-order error, both of which are pretty obvious). There are probably several copies in peoples' collections that have not been identified. ("I know there's a valuable variant, but which is it? The one with the article by that female executive? Oh. Karen Berger or Jeanette Kahn? Hmm. Oh well, I probably don't have the variant, I just got it at my local comic shop in California.")

 

The Sandman series ended in 1996, and back issue demand began cooling fairly quickly thereafter. The entire series has been in continuous reprints, with at least two different waves of hardcovers, an Absolute set, and an Annotated set. There is no reason whatsoever to buy back issues if you only want to read the stories. But since CGC didn't begin until 2000, the peak of Sandman interest had already passed. Thus, GPA only shows the recent resurgence in price, not the whole picture.

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With regards to the sandman 8 book in question, it's nice to see some people at least allowing for the possibility that there "may" be as few as 100 surviving copies. There were indeed 600 copies "printed" but they were not all distributed. And it was a very long time before they were given any kind of significant value over the regular issue. You can see the progression on the GPA chart. I have never once said "there are only 100 copies". I have only said that I believe this to be a reasonable statement based on X, Y, and Z facts. I have no doubt there are raw copies lingering around here and there in collections. But again, I certainly would not say there are hundreds upon hundreds. The book is just too valuable, and too many people know the book is too valuable for there not to be more copies on the census and available at any given time for sale on the open market for this to be true IMO. "IMO" being the operative part of that sentence. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

Did you not see the photos of Wizard that I posted, or not care because it wasn't GPA? The cover date for Sandman 8 is Aug 89. By Apr 92 it was a $100 comic in Wizard. That's only about 2.5 years. It's a much faster progression of values than Amazing Spider-man 300, New Mutants 98, or Walking Dead 1 demonstrated. I don't have the 90 or 91 OPG to check, and that was the oldest Wizard I had.

 

Multiple owners of the book have come forward to say they have it raw and see no reason to pay someone $20 to put it in a plastic case for them. The book was originally marketed toward adult collectors. The "mature readers" label, art style, and themes pretty much kept it out of the dirty hands of children who were wrestling each other for the one-panel Cable preview in New Mutants 86.

 

I think this comic suffers for having a variant that is not immediately visible from the outside, and not even immediately identifiable to the uninitiated (as opposed to a Mark Jewelers insert or pages-out-of-order error, both of which are pretty obvious). There are probably several copies in peoples' collections that have not been identified. ("I know there's a valuable variant, but which is it? The one with the article by that female executive? Oh. Karen Berger or Jeanette Kahn? Hmm. Oh well, I probably don't have the variant, I just got it at my local comic shop in California.")

 

The Sandman series ended in 1996, and back issue demand began cooling fairly quickly thereafter. The entire series has been in continuous reprints, with at least two different waves of hardcovers, an Absolute set, and an Annotated set. There is no reason whatsoever to buy back issues if you only want to read the stories. But since CGC didn't begin until 2000, the peak of Sandman interest had already passed. Thus, GPA only shows the recent resurgence in price, not the whole picture.

 

Well said ^^

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I'd be amazed if there weren't still 500 in existence. In fact I can't see any reason why more than 10% of the print run was lost or destroyed.

 

Very few people are looking for this book which is why there are so few on the census.

 

The fact you just paid $1,000 for a 9.6 doesn't make it rare, no matter how many times you repeat yourself.

 

r100- Dude. Are you sure you're even posting in the right thread ? Seriously.

 

Garlanda- I missed your original post but I went back and saw it. It's always interesting to see those old price guides. I was never a big wizard fan although I did like the articles and market reports. The furthest back Overstreet guide value I could track down is 2005, when the 8A was $22, and the 8B was $60 (basically unchanged from the wizard value 15 years earlier). While that is a percentage value difference from the 8A of nearly 300%, the actual dollar difference is obviously only $38. This is not a significant difference. Coincidentally, it is also in about 2005 when it began to sell for greater multiples than the 8A.

 

I do agree with the substance of your post, and I also do agree that there are likely a lot of collectors who have it raw, and will not slab it. However, contrary to the generalizations that others have made there are A LOT of collectors (obviously) who slab their books so they can have an "official" grade of their book, and better protect it. The majority of most initiated collectors will know full well by now whether or not they have the regular issue or the editorial variant. I have no doubt many of them see no reason to slab, especially if they have no intention to sell. By the same token I've also seen people selling their raw copies here and there as if they were slabbed and cgc graded. I still believe the closest example to this is the batman 608rrp, with its 500 print run, limited distribution, and early eventual demand and value on the secondary market. Fully over half of the entire print run of that book has been slabbed. Not every person who slabbed it did so with the intent to sell obviously. There are copies graded of that all the way down to a 7. And that book is barely 12 years old and was sought after rather quickly.

 

This is a rhetorical question, because any answer would be pure speculation. But if we have a book with a similar print run, and limited distribution, and comparable value and demand with over half its print run slabbed, why do we only see barely 5% of sandman 8B's print run on the census? Is it because the owners of the other 95% want to be able to needlessly handle their $500-2000 book and re-read an editorial that is readily available online whenever they want ? I say, "No". That doesn't even make sense. At least not as applied to any significant amount of people. Is it because they don't know what they have? I say "No". Any collector (sandman collectors in particular) worth his salt knows exactly what he has by now, as has been established, the variant has been well known to collectors for a long time, even if its dollar value hasn't always been massively higher than the normal version as it is now. Is it because some people just don't see the need to slab, or figure the grade won't be high enough to bother slabbing it. I say "It's very possible". I know I won't personally slab a modern below a 9.6, but that's just me. Although, interestingly enough, there is a graded example all the way down to a 7.0 of the 8B as well.

 

Is it because not very many copies of the 8B just aren't around anymore? I say "Yes". I'm not sure why so many contributors to this thread would rather speculate about every other possible explanation under the sun for the book's scarcity to non - existence on the census and the market, no matter how far fetched or unlikely it might be, instead of actually considering the most likely and obvious explanation- that the book's survival rate, for whatever reason, is simply lower than you think.

 

Are there only 100 copies out there ? Who knows? That's my guess. Would it have sounded more reasonable for some reason if I estimated 200 instead? 250? Are there 500+ out there ? I say absolutely not. At some point we have to actually look at and consider the numbers we do have, and there is nothing to suggest or would allow us to extrapolate that many copies surviving in the secondary market.

 

Again, this is my "opinion" based on statistical data and the information that is readily available to us. To those of you who say, "none of that matters, stats and data don't matter, what I say matters because I just know more than you", I say "get over yourself". We're just talking about comic books here after all. (thumbs u

 

-J.

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why do we only see barely 5% of sandman 8B's print run on the census? Is it because the owners of the other 95% want to be able to needlessly handle their $500-2000 book and re-read an editorial that is readily available online whenever they want ?

No, it's because there are many (MANY!) people out there who don't slab their books unless they're planning on selling them! :makepoint:

 

Slabbing a book (even a rare book; a popular book; a high grade book!) is not (let me repeat that, NOT) an automatic course of action for hundreds (probably thousands) of collectors. Dare I say, for the majority of collectors.

 

I told you a bit earlier that I've had this book for 15 years. Unslabbed. Raw. In a mylite with a fullback. Inside a short box with all my other Sandman books. It will remain there for as long as I'm collecting (which will probably be for the rest of my life). I'm 38 now and if I continue living a good life (and barring some unforeseen disaster or accident), I'll probably keep on truckin' on this planet for a good 40 years more at least (most people in my family live to see their 90s BTW).

 

So, this copy of the book is one (among many, I guess) that won't be seen on the market for at least a few decades.

 

Again, I ask you, why do you believe that this is such a unique situation? I appreciate you trying to make me feel special, but I assure you, I'm not. (shrug)

 

Also...

 

there are A LOT of collectors (obviously) who slab their books so they can have an "official" grade of their book...

There are MANY MORE who don't. Really. :gossip:

 

...and better protect it.

No matter how many times you keep saying that, it won't necessarily make it true. ;)

 

 

 

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However, contrary to the generalizations that others have made there are A LOT of collectors (obviously) who slab their books so they can have an "official" grade of their book, and better protect it.

 

Think about this statement. Then think about the type of collector "who slab their books so they can have an "official" grade". Now, how many of those collectors are collecting a defunct title, with relatively few books worth slabbing?

 

I still believe the closest example to this is the batman 608rrp, with its 500 print run, limited distribution, and early eventual demand and value on the secondary market. Fully over half of the entire print run of that book has been slabbed... And that book is barely 12 years old and was sought after rather quickly.

 

The market for the RRP is substantially different than that of the S8B.

A single RRP was distributed to individual retailers, who were far more likely to slab to maximize profit on the one book received. The S8B was distributed to collectors.

 

The RRP was distributed 12 years ago, when CGC was in full swing with its marketing efforts rather than 24.

 

The RRP was "worth" slabbing almost immediately upon release, when the majority of copies would be 9.4 or better, instead of 15-20 years later, when the majority of S8B copies would be 9.4 or worse. There are also far more S8Bs sitting in collections gathering dust, compared to RRPs.

 

 

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However, contrary to the generalizations that others have made there are A LOT of collectors (obviously) who slab their books so they can have an "official" grade of their book, and better protect it.

 

Think about this statement. Then think about the type of collector "who slab their books so they can have an "official" grade". Now, how many of those collectors are collecting a defunct title, with relatively few books worth slabbing?

 

I still believe the closest example to this is the batman 608rrp, with its 500 print run, limited distribution, and early eventual demand and value on the secondary market. Fully over half of the entire print run of that book has been slabbed... And that book is barely 12 years old and was sought after rather quickly.

 

The market for the RRP is substantially different than that of the S8B.

A single RRP was distributed to individual retailers, who were far more likely to slab to maximize profit on the one book received. The S8B was distributed to collectors.

 

The RRP was distributed 12 years ago, when CGC was in full swing with its marketing efforts rather than 24.

 

The RRP was "worth" slabbing almost immediately upon release, when the majority of copies would be 9.4 or better, instead of 15-20 years later, when the majority of S8B copies would be 9.4 or worse. There are also far more S8Bs sitting in collections gathering dust, compared to RRPs.

 

 

Your points are well taken actually. These are plausible explanations for why there would be "some" difference in the percentages of slabbing for the 8B/608RRP, but I'm not so sure it tells the whole story, and I do not believe that it leads to the presumption that 400-500+ of the 8B have survived.

 

Again, I am not merely basing my personal estimates only on slabbing, but the amount of copies (raw or slabbed) that surface for sale in a given a year, or are available at any given time. The 608RRP will typically have 2-3 copies floating around for sale at any given time. The 8B "might" have 2-3 copies "a year" come up, and one of those is likely to be a scam.

 

For this, there are two possible explanations: 1) People have them and just aren't selling them, regardless of how expensive or valuable they become. This is a very realistic possibility. However there are numerous examples of limited run variants that are expensive and sought after (like the 608RRP), with a rabid and loyal fan base where we still see multiple copies coming up for sale on a regular basis. The Saga 1 RRP comes to mind. It doesn't matter what the original distribution method was, once the book hits the secondary market the playing field is leveled. And we just don't see the same percentages of the 8B hitting the market, as we do these other books.

 

The other explanation is, 2) The 8B is just plain less plentiful as some seem to think it is, whether slabbed or raw, they just are seldom seen, be it on the census, at a con, at an auction house, on ebay, or what-have-you.

 

Basically, both explanations require speculation, but only one of them is an extrapolation of hard data IMO.

 

-J.

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For this, there are two possible explanations: 1) People have them and just aren't selling them, regardless of how expensive or valuable they become. This is a very realistic possibility. However there are numerous examples of limited run variants that are expensive and sought after (like the 608RRP), with a rabid and loyal fan base where we still see multiple copies coming up for sale on a regular basis. The Saga 1 RRP comes to mind. It doesn't matter what the original distribution method was, once the book hits the secondary market the playing field is leveled. And we just don't see the same percentages of the 8B hitting the market, as we do these other books.

 

You are making an assumption of an efficient market with perfect information, which clearly this is not.

 

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Is it because not very many copies of the 8B just aren't around anymore? I say "Yes". I'm not sure why so many contributors to this thread would rather speculate about every other possible explanation under the sun for the book's scarcity to non - existence on the census and the market, no matter how far fetched or unlikely it might be, instead of actually considering the most likely and obvious explanation- that the book's survival rate, for whatever reason, is simply lower than you think.

 

Because there is absolutely no reason to suspect a high attrition rate for a comic that is less than 30 years old that was distributed to comic collectors. Especially one with an older audience.

 

 

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I'm baffled by how quickly we're going back over this. Here's a link to RMA posting a transcript from the Feb 9, 1990 issue of Comics Buyers Guide:

 

RMA and Jaydog talking about this in the Copper Forum

 

For the linking impaired, this is key:

When writer Neil Gaiman was touring California after the San Diego Comic-Con last summer, DC sent one box each to two comics stores where Gaiman would be doing signings: Comix Experience in San Francisco and The Outer Limits in Los Angeles. It was in these stores that the discovery was made that they were variant printings. "Jaws dropped and phone calls were made," Gaiman told CBG. "And, to the credits of both the stores, the comics *were* given away to the people at the signings -- although I think anything they had left over after the signing they will be selling."

 

So, in a quote from none other than Neil Gaiman himself, who was there when they were given out, the books were immediately recognized as variants and given out during his appearances, even further reinforcing the supposition that these variant copies are mostly safely in the hands of collectors who are keeping them.

 

 

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I'm baffled by how quickly we're going back over this. Here's a link to RMA posting a transcript from the Feb 9, 1990 issue of Comics Buyers Guide:

 

RMA and Jaydog talking about this in the Copper Forum

 

For the linking impaired, this is key:

When writer Neil Gaiman was touring California after the San Diego Comic-Con last summer, DC sent one box each to two comics stores where Gaiman would be doing signings: Comix Experience in San Francisco and The Outer Limits in Los Angeles. It was in these stores that the discovery was made that they were variant printings. "Jaws dropped and phone calls were made," Gaiman told CBG. "And, to the credits of both the stores, the comics *were* given away to the people at the signings -- although I think anything they had left over after the signing they will be selling."

 

So, in a quote from none other than Neil Gaiman himself, who was there when they were given out, the books were immediately recognized as variants and given out during his appearances, even further reinforcing the supposition that these variant copies are mostly safely in the hands of collectors who are keeping them.

 

 

Neil Gaiman....bah! Who is that guy?

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