#5835050 - 07/09/12 04:01 PM
Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
[Re: sufunk]
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Ariamus
TOTAL NEWBIE
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Loc: 3rd Rock From the Sun
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He's definitely having a monster year(nice to see one of our "can't miss" prospects finally pan out!) but it's hard to vote for him over Hamilton at this point I don't get why everyone automatically gravitates towards Hamilton as the de-facto MVP in the AL. I get that the RBI number is especially outrageous. But RBI as the definitive measure of a player's value is ancient, uninformed, or ignorant thinking.
You put any guy in the middle of a strong lineup and he's going to drive in 100 runs. Heck, you put any guy in the middle of even a just above average lineup and they'll drive in 100. Rico Brogna did it for the Phillies in the late 90s... twice!
You put a guy of Hamilton's ability in the middle of the best lineup in baseball in one of the best hitters' parks in the game and you're going to get a 140 RBI season's pace. BTW, I don't really think Hamilton will get to 140 because he hasn't had his month on the DL yet this season.
By advanced statistical measure, Hamilton's numbers aren't as large as they appear to those who just look at "traditional" stats. He's just seventh in the AL overall WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for position players (which factors in defensive position and prowess) behind Lawrie, Trout, Cano, Reddick, Jackson, and Kipnis. Lawrie's another kid that's as good as they come and the fact that he plays a premium position with few real quality stars shoots him up the leaderboard here. Cano is a fantastic player and Jackson's having a monster year. I guess Kipnis is on this list because of the postion he plays and Reddick must be putting up some massive OF assists numbers in Boston.
Even when it comes to offensive WAR, which takes into consideration just what a player does at the plate AND on the bases, Hamilton ranks only fourth in the AL this season. Trout, Cano, and Cabrera all currently rank ahead of Hamilton who's tied for fourth with Austin Jackson.
For my money, I'd give a serious look to what Trout has done and the impact it's had on the team since he's been called up. WAR stats are cumulative and he leads the league in offensive WAR having played only in 3/4 of the number of games the rest of the guys I've mentioned have. But accepting that my opinion is biased, even if I'm not picking Trout as my AL MVP right now, my pick would be Cano. He's having a MONSTER year and also plays a premium (up the middle) position pretty well.
As an aside, Cano's a Boras guy, right? Scott must be crapping the sheets in anticipation of how much money his client's going to get next off-season. $225 million is not out of the question...
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#5835065 - 07/09/12 04:04 PM
Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
[Re: Ariamus]
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Rodey
FACT if I stop posting, trillions and trillions of transistors would be out of work.
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Yeah, he's a Boras client. I'm sure the Yankees are going to make some room for him.
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#5835152 - 07/09/12 04:29 PM
Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
[Re: Ariamus]
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sufunk
It used to at least change but now its just stuck on TOTAL NEWBIE forever.
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 11/10/10
Posts: 11670
Loc: Davie, Florida
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He's definitely having a monster year(nice to see one of our "can't miss" prospects finally pan out!) but it's hard to vote for him over Hamilton at this point I don't get why everyone automatically gravitates towards Hamilton as the de-facto MVP in the AL. I get that the RBI number is especially outrageous. But RBI as the definitive measure of a player's value is ancient, uninformed, or ignorant thinking. You put any guy in the middle of a strong lineup and he's going to drive in 100 runs. Heck, you put any guy in the middle of even a just above average lineup and they'll drive in 100. Rico Brogna did it for the Phillies in the late 90s... twice! You put a guy of Hamilton's ability in the middle of the best lineup in baseball in one of the best hitters' parks in the game and you're going to get a 140 RBI season's pace. BTW, I don't really think Hamilton will get to 140 because he hasn't had his month on the DL yet this season. By advanced statistical measure, Hamilton's numbers aren't as large as they appear to those who just look at "traditional" stats. He's just seventh in the AL overall WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for position players (which factors in defensive position and prowess) behind Lawrie, Trout, Cano, Reddick, Jackson, and Kipnis. Lawrie's another kid that's as good as they come and the fact that he plays a premium position with few real quality stars shoots him up the leaderboard here. Cano is a fantastic player and Jackson's having a monster year. I guess Kipnis is on this list because of the postion he plays and Reddick must be putting up some massive OF assists numbers in Boston. Even when it comes to offensive WAR, which takes into consideration just what a player does at the plate AND on the bases, Hamilton ranks only fourth in the AL this season. Trout, Cano, and Cabrera all currently rank ahead of Hamilton who's tied for fourth with Austin Jackson. For my money, I'd give a serious look to what Trout has done and the impact it's had on the team since he's been called up. WAR stats are cumulative and he leads the league in offensive WAR having played only in 3/4 of the number of games the rest of the guys I've mentioned have. But accepting that my opinion is biased, even if I'm not picking Trout as my AL MVP right now, my pick would be Cano. He's having a MONSTER year and also plays a premium (up the middle) position pretty well. As an aside, Cano's a Boras guy, right? Scott must be crapping the sheets in anticipation of how much money his client's going to get next off-season. $225 million is not out of the question...
I get that he plays in a hitters park in a great lineup BUT he still is batting well over .300, leads the league in HR's with 27, has 75 rbi's, 54 runs and is slugging .635! You aint just putting any good player in his spot and getting those numbers. believe me, i HATE Texas but its hard to argue he isnt MVP right now, especially with Texas sitting in 1st place 
And no, i dont discount Trouts affect on the Angels. We were sitting 6-14 before we called him up and looked like the biggest disappointment in baseball. Since he got called up, we have i think the best record in baseball. Of course though, Pujols also started hitting and trumbo has been a madman but Trout definitely looks like the real deal!
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#5835263 - 07/09/12 05:16 PM
Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
[Re: Rodey]
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mrwoogieman
Pedigreed
Registered: 07/28/03
Posts: 6272
Loc: THE LOST LAND
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Yeah, he's a Boras client. I'm sure the Yankees are going to make some room for him.
They have no choice but to pay Cano whatever it takes. His bat is key to the line up and his stellar defense is needed to prop up Jeter in the field. Look no further than the fact that Cano is the relay man, not Jeter, and you have your answer as to who is the better fielder.
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#5835319 - 07/09/12 05:47 PM
Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
[Re: sufunk]
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Ariamus
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 11/09/02
Posts: 7445
Loc: 3rd Rock From the Sun
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He's definitely having a monster year(nice to see one of our "can't miss" prospects finally pan out!) but it's hard to vote for him over Hamilton at this point I don't get why everyone automatically gravitates towards Hamilton as the de-facto MVP in the AL. I get that the RBI number is especially outrageous. But RBI as the definitive measure of a player's value is ancient, uninformed, or ignorant thinking. You put any guy in the middle of a strong lineup and he's going to drive in 100 runs. Heck, you put any guy in the middle of even a just above average lineup and they'll drive in 100. Rico Brogna did it for the Phillies in the late 90s... twice! You put a guy of Hamilton's ability in the middle of the best lineup in baseball in one of the best hitters' parks in the game and you're going to get a 140 RBI season's pace. BTW, I don't really think Hamilton will get to 140 because he hasn't had his month on the DL yet this season. By advanced statistical measure, Hamilton's numbers aren't as large as they appear to those who just look at "traditional" stats. He's just seventh in the AL overall WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for position players (which factors in defensive position and prowess) behind Lawrie, Trout, Cano, Reddick, Jackson, and Kipnis. Lawrie's another kid that's as good as they come and the fact that he plays a premium position with few real quality stars shoots him up the leaderboard here. Cano is a fantastic player and Jackson's having a monster year. I guess Kipnis is on this list because of the postion he plays and Reddick must be putting up some massive OF assists numbers in Boston. Even when it comes to offensive WAR, which takes into consideration just what a player does at the plate AND on the bases, Hamilton ranks only fourth in the AL this season. Trout, Cano, and Cabrera all currently rank ahead of Hamilton who's tied for fourth with Austin Jackson. For my money, I'd give a serious look to what Trout has done and the impact it's had on the team since he's been called up. WAR stats are cumulative and he leads the league in offensive WAR having played only in 3/4 of the number of games the rest of the guys I've mentioned have. But accepting that my opinion is biased, even if I'm not picking Trout as my AL MVP right now, my pick would be Cano. He's having a MONSTER year and also plays a premium (up the middle) position pretty well. As an aside, Cano's a Boras guy, right? Scott must be crapping the sheets in anticipation of how much money his client's going to get next off-season. $225 million is not out of the question... I get that he plays in a hitters park in a great lineup BUT he still is batting well over .300, leads the league in HR's with 27, has 75 rbi's, 54 runs and is slugging .635! You aint just putting any good player in his spot and getting those numbers. believe me, i HATE Texas but its hard to argue he isnt MVP right now, especially with Texas sitting in 1st place  And no, i dont discount Trouts affect on the Angels. We were sitting 6-14 before we called him up and looked like the biggest disappointment in baseball. Since he got called up, we have i think the best record in baseball. Of course though, Pujols also started hitting and trumbo has been a madman but Trout definitely looks like the real deal! We'll have to agree to disagree then. Again, I don't place much value at all in RBI as a definitive measurement of a player's value to their team. As for the slugging numbers, obviously Hamilton's going to have a significant advantage over Trout in that department. But that's about it.
There is a number I like to look at that I don't think is looked at great length elsewhere. It's something I like to call "bases earned percentage" and it's essentially just a modified slugging percentage. I add stolen bases and walks to total bases and divide by plate appearances instead of at bats. I've used that calculation for years to approximate the value a player's speed relative to other players.
By this measure, Trout is just a smidge ahead of Hamilton. He's got 196 "bases earned" in 290 plate appearances, or a percentage of 67.826% whereas Hamilton's got 231 "bases earned" in 342 plate appearances for a percentage of 67.439%. One could argue the a "base earned" with a hit is worth more than one earned with a steal because hits drive in runs. But then we'd be back to the argument of whether or not RBI is an over-rated and over-valued stat because it's so team dependent. And one could also counter-argue that steals create runs in that they put the runner closer to scoring.
Trout has more runs scored, in 20 less games. He's hitting 35 points higher, .341 to .306. He's got a higher on base percentage. He is a significantly better defensive player; not that Hamilton's a bad defensive player but Trout is fantastic. And, even though it's kind of a nebulous concept, his impact on his team's fortunes is more easily identifiable. Back when Hamilton was hitting 20 homers before Memorial Day, he had the advantage of the "narrative". There's no question that Trout has that advantage now.
Again, it's important to look beyond just the "traditional power numbers". In no way am I saying that Hamilton doesn't deserve serious consideration for a would-be mid-season MVP award. I'm just saying it's not the slam dunk case most people seem to think it is. And again, we can agree to disagree.
_________________________
"I'm OK with [creationists] being right [about the Rapture} if that means they're gone". --- Rebecca Watson on pyrrhic victories...
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#5837186 - 07/10/12 01:38 PM
Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
[Re: Ariamus]
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500Club
Pedigreed
Registered: 06/11/03
Posts: 5412
Loc: Canada
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Why not Trout as the MVP? Guy leads the league in hitting, stolen bases, OPS+ and is on pace for 100 runs scored, 80 RBI, 20+ homers, 60 steals, and a run-away gold glove. If he keeps his first half pace up, then by goodness yes he should get serious consideration as the MVP. Yep, and as noted above, Trout has had a significant impact on the Angels' fortunes. That is the V in MVP.
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#5838197 - 07/10/12 08:27 PM
Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
[Re: 500Club]
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tth2
"I blame it on the low quality of the newbies that are joining the boards." --And with one swoop tth2 become the community crotchety old man. Damn kids today.
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 33522
Loc: Hong Kong
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Excluding Ichiro, who doesn't count because he wasn't truly a rookie even if technically he was a MLB rookie when he won his MVP, is Fred Lynn the only player to win the MVP as a rookie? I'm too lazy to check whether he made the Hall of Fame.
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#5838724 - 07/11/12 12:12 AM
Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
[Re: tth2]
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shadroch
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 22028
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Fred Lynn did not make the HOF. Didn't come close. Had a decent career and had a huge All-Star game a few years later while playing for the Angels. Jim Rice, who was also a rookie the same year as Lynn and actually had equal numbers until he broke his wrist in late September and missed the rest of the year and the post-season, did make the Hall. I have a book published in 1981 or thereabouts that list Lynn as one of the top 100 players of all-time, and the fourth or fifth best CF.
Edited by shadroch (07/11/12 12:18 AM)
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#5838748 - 07/11/12 12:23 AM
Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
[Re: shadroch]
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Ariamus
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 11/09/02
Posts: 7445
Loc: 3rd Rock From the Sun
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Fred Lynn did not make the HOF. Didn't come close. Had a decent career and had a huge All-Star game a few years later while playing for the Angels. Jim Rice, who was also a rookie the same year as Lynn and actually had equal numbers until he broke his wrist in late September and missed the rest of the year and the post-season, did make the Hall. I have a book published in 1981 or thereabouts that list Lynn as one of the top 100 players of all-time, and the fourth or fifth best CF. With most players, there's only so often a guy can go running full speed into outfield walls... Lynn broke down very quickly but in his prime, and even later in his career with the Halos, he was a fantastic player to watch play.
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"I'm OK with [creationists] being right [about the Rapture} if that means they're gone". --- Rebecca Watson on pyrrhic victories...
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#5838830 - 07/11/12 01:31 AM
Re: The Official 2012 MLB Thread
[Re: Ariamus]
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FlyingDonut
I sold the first CGC book ever on eBay and all I got was this stinking title.
TOTAL NEWBIE
Registered: 08/02/02
Posts: 30496
Loc: Chicagoan Abroad
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Fred Lynn did not make the HOF. Didn't come close. Had a decent career and had a huge All-Star game a few years later while playing for the Angels. Jim Rice, who was also a rookie the same year as Lynn and actually had equal numbers until he broke his wrist in late September and missed the rest of the year and the post-season, did make the Hall. I have a book published in 1981 or thereabouts that list Lynn as one of the top 100 players of all-time, and the fourth or fifth best CF. With most players, there's only so often a guy can go running full speed into outfield walls... Lynn broke down very quickly but in his prime, and even later in his career with the Halos, he was a fantastic player to watch play.

Look at Fred Lynn's splits in Boston/not in Boston. Fred was a great great player when he played in Fenway.
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