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#5662569 - 05/08/12 04:10 PM Re: Official NHL Playoff Thread [Re: hockey&comicsguy]
Ariamus Offline
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 Originally Posted By: hockey&comicsguy
...Plus, as much as I like Clarkson, I can't root for the Devils b/c of 95. I hope they choke and the Flyers come back. But I say that with all due respect Ariamus.

Keep hoping...

BTW, you're assessment is cold, dead wrong... no offense. The Devils are above-average at best defensively. Not "extremely good" or even "still good". They do have some kids that are highly regarded headed up of course by Larsson but those guys are a year or two away from making a significant impact. The guys they have now are journeymen at best and the unit as a whole is blah... but what would I know? I'm only a season ticket holder who saw 60+ of their games this season. doh\!

That's OK though; you keep telling yourself it's the defense. I mean, it's the Devils so it has to be the defense, right? hm

Oh, and I never said the Devils were any great, super-charged offense. But you sell them short. Parise, Kovy, Zajac, Elias, Henrique, and Clarkson (this year) are all all-star caliber players. That's six forwards; not many teams you can say that about. And if everyone else is "average 2nd/3rd line", I'm quite OK with that considering the top two lines are replete with all-star caliber players.

It would have been interesting to see what they might have done if Zajac and Josefsson had been healthy all year and if Henrique weren't subject to the rigors of the long NHL season for the first time in his life. The fact that Zajac and the rookie have come on very strong in the post-season has me smiling ear to ear for this team's prospects next year and beyond. If they could ever re-sign Parise (not likely, I know), this could be a high-flying team for years to come.

As for your claim regarding how many goals a game a team needs to win in the playoffs, it's just downright silly on a number of levels. You say you don't need 3.5 goals a game to win. Yes, that much is true... but it's been true for 20 years. The last year in which the two Stanley Cup finalists combined average 3.5 goals or more per playoff game was 1993. And 1992 was the last time both finalists did that individually.

But 2 goals per game? I just went back and looked at every single finalist since and including 1991 (the period of NHL history I refer to as the "second expansion era") and of the 40 finalists in that period, only two have averaged less than 2 1/4 goals per game: Carolina in 2002 and Anaheim in 2003. Only two more have average less than 2 1/2 a game: Dallas in 2000 and Calgary in 2004.

The most anemic Cup winner in the period was Tampa in 2004 at 2.609 goals per post-season game. And a full 22 of the 40 finalists mentioned averaged 3 or more goals per playoff game. Finally, in the last few years, scoring in the playoffs is up and could be rising. The combined averages of the two finalists in each playoffs since the lockout has been 2.918, 2.854, 3.167, 3.298, 3.422, and 2.780.

It remains to be seen if last year's number was an anomaly and not a reversal of the post-lockout trend. I'm going to guess it's the former because of how much Vancouver's 2.320 goals per playoff game skewed the numbers for the finalists. The combined per game average for the other seven teams to advance from the first round in 2011 was an even 3.000 and that number for the three other semifinalists was 3.131.

This year, three of the six teams still alive have averaged 3 or more per game and it's still possible to have a final featuring two teams with averages at or above 3. Long story short, you're assertion that it's an incredibly defensive game and 2 goals per game is enough is wrong.

One final note; the assumption that it's the teams out west that "run and gun" is a conclusion mired in the late 90's and early 2000s. This year, as an example, the four highest scoring teams in the league were Eastern Conference teams. And since the lockout, in five of the seven seasons, East Conference teams made up at least half of the top 10 regular season scoring teams.

You and I can agree on one thing, though... how crazy this post-season has been. I remember hearing this stat before the playoffs where since something like 1975, something like only 2 or 3 teams that were not amongst the top third in scoring in the regular season won the whole thing. This year, if the Devils finish off the Flyers, NONE of the four semi-finalists will have finished in the top third in scoring during the regular season.
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#5662584 - 05/08/12 04:14 PM Re: Official NHL Playoff Thread [Re: shadroch]
Ariamus Offline
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 Originally Posted By: shadroch
You think eliminating the two line pass rule was a bigger change than eliminating ties? Bringing in OT or going 4X4 in OT?
Why is OT during the season 4X4 but 5X5 in the playoffs?
At least they eliminated the shootout, which is what really turned me off to hockey. That and the Icelanders going into a thirty year slump.

Yes... a thousand times yes. Getting rid of ties in favor of the shootout was abjectly stupid, IMO. I hate seeing games decided by an "all-star skills competition". I would have no problem if they went back to ties and making wins worth an extra point. So three points for a win and one point apiece for a tie.

OT is 5x5 in the playoffs because playoff NHL hockey doesn't need any jazzing up, overtime or not...
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#5662960 - 05/08/12 06:10 PM Re: Official NHL Playoff Thread [Re: Ariamus]
kimik Online   content
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 Originally Posted By: Ariamus
 Originally Posted By: shadroch
You think eliminating the two line pass rule was a bigger change than eliminating ties? Bringing in OT or going 4X4 in OT?
Why is OT during the season 4X4 but 5X5 in the playoffs?
At least they eliminated the shootout, which is what really turned me off to hockey. That and the Icelanders going into a thirty year slump.

Yes... a thousand times yes. Getting rid of ties in favor of the shootout was abjectly stupid, IMO. I hate seeing games decided by an "all-star skills competition". I would have no problem if they went back to ties and making wins worth an extra point. So three points for a win and one point apiece for a tie.

OT is 5x5 in the playoffs because playoff NHL hockey doesn't need any jazzing up, overtime or not...


I used to view shootouts the same way, but I have come around. They are an awesome way to end the game when you are there in person. The crowd has a blast with them.

If the most popular sport in the world can decide games with a shootout, I see no reason why the NHL can't.............
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#5663008 - 05/08/12 06:27 PM Re: Official NHL Playoff Thread [Re: kimik]
shadroch Offline
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Nascar uses a shoot-out? Now that I'd like to see.
Seriously, though,. Soccer uses the shootout only in playoffs and tournaments. The NHL does just the opposite. It uses them for regular games and abandons them for the playoffs.


Edited by shadroch (05/08/12 06:29 PM)
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#5677010 - 05/13/12 12:23 AM Re: Official NHL Playoff Thread [Re: shadroch]
joeypost Offline

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#5677177 - 05/13/12 02:15 AM Re: Official NHL Playoff Thread [Re: joeypost]
tortoise Offline
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Registered: 12/22/09
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(which means Devs/Kings for the cup)

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#5677415 - 05/13/12 09:00 AM Re: Official NHL Playoff Thread [Re: tortoise]
Ariamus Offline
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#5677672 - 05/13/12 12:09 PM Re: Official NHL Playoff Thread [Re: Ariamus]
Mio Offline
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#5677925 - 05/13/12 02:32 PM Re: Official NHL Playoff Thread [Re: Ariamus]
hockey&comicsguy Offline
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Registered: 05/30/07
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 Originally Posted By: Ariamus
 Originally Posted By: hockey&comicsguy
...Plus, as much as I like Clarkson, I can't root for the Devils b/c of 95. I hope they choke and the Flyers come back. But I say that with all due respect Ariamus.

Keep hoping...

BTW, you're assessment is cold, dead wrong... no offense. The Devils are above-average at best defensively. Not "extremely good" or even "still good". They do have some kids that are highly regarded headed up of course by Larsson but those guys are a year or two away from making a significant impact. The guys they have now are journeymen at best and the unit as a whole is blah... but what would I know? I'm only a season ticket holder who saw 60+ of their games this season. doh\!

That's OK though; you keep telling yourself it's the defense. I mean, it's the Devils so it has to be the defense, right? hm

Oh, and I never said the Devils were any great, super-charged offense. But you sell them short. Parise, Kovy, Zajac, Elias, Henrique, and Clarkson (this year) are all all-star caliber players. That's six forwards; not many teams you can say that about. And if everyone else is "average 2nd/3rd line", I'm quite OK with that considering the top two lines are replete with all-star caliber players.

It would have been interesting to see what they might have done if Zajac and Josefsson had been healthy all year and if Henrique weren't subject to the rigors of the long NHL season for the first time in his life. The fact that Zajac and the rookie have come on very strong in the post-season has me smiling ear to ear for this team's prospects next year and beyond. If they could ever re-sign Parise (not likely, I know), this could be a high-flying team for years to come.

As for your claim regarding how many goals a game a team needs to win in the playoffs, it's just downright silly on a number of levels. You say you don't need 3.5 goals a game to win. Yes, that much is true... but it's been true for 20 years. The last year in which the two Stanley Cup finalists combined average 3.5 goals or more per playoff game was 1993. And 1992 was the last time both finalists did that individually.

But 2 goals per game? I just went back and looked at every single finalist since and including 1991 (the period of NHL history I refer to as the "second expansion era") and of the 40 finalists in that period, only two have averaged less than 2 1/4 goals per game: Carolina in 2002 and Anaheim in 2003. Only two more have average less than 2 1/2 a game: Dallas in 2000 and Calgary in 2004.

The most anemic Cup winner in the period was Tampa in 2004 at 2.609 goals per post-season game. And a full 22 of the 40 finalists mentioned averaged 3 or more goals per playoff game. Finally, in the last few years, scoring in the playoffs is up and could be rising. The combined averages of the two finalists in each playoffs since the lockout has been 2.918, 2.854, 3.167, 3.298, 3.422, and 2.780.

It remains to be seen if last year's number was an anomaly and not a reversal of the post-lockout trend. I'm going to guess it's the former because of how much Vancouver's 2.320 goals per playoff game skewed the numbers for the finalists. The combined per game average for the other seven teams to advance from the first round in 2011 was an even 3.000 and that number for the three other semifinalists was 3.131.

This year, three of the six teams still alive have averaged 3 or more per game and it's still possible to have a final featuring two teams with averages at or above 3. Long story short, you're assertion that it's an incredibly defensive game and 2 goals per game is enough is wrong.

One final note; the assumption that it's the teams out west that "run and gun" is a conclusion mired in the late 90's and early 2000s. This year, as an example, the four highest scoring teams in the league were Eastern Conference teams. And since the lockout, in five of the seven seasons, East Conference teams made up at least half of the top 10 regular season scoring teams.

You and I can agree on one thing, though... how crazy this post-season has been. I remember hearing this stat before the playoffs where since something like 1975, something like only 2 or 3 teams that were not amongst the top third in scoring in the regular season won the whole thing. This year, if the Devils finish off the Flyers, NONE of the four semi-finalists will have finished in the top third in scoring during the regular season.


I'm going to disagree, respectfully of course, with the vast majority of this post.

Regarding the actual players on their D, you used the word "blah". I believe if you parse out what I said earlier we'd be in agreement. But as a unit I think quantifying them as "excellent" or "still good" is warranted.

Numbers don't always tell the full story but they don't lie either. The Devils don't win by being better offensively than most other teams. They win by being "stingy" as I said and better defensively than most other teams.

Power play, nope, not exactly a Devils strength.

Even strength 5 on 5, nope, they're average at best.

Offensive generation, nope, near the bottom of the league in shots/chances per game.


How about defensively?

Penalty Kill rank = #1

Shots allowed per game = #2 (second fewest allowed)

They're a top 10 team defensively. The same can not be said for them offensively.

It's not how big the names are that comprise the unit its how they play as a unit. And you'd be hard pressed to find a single NHL coach who, given those numbers wouldn't take those numbers and thank the hockey gods. Game, set and match.


As for their offense. As I stated, I will give you Kovy, Elias and Parise. Clarkson as well but more for this style/tenaciousness as he's not a big point guy and isn't going to dazzle and generate a lot of offense. Zajac was gone most of the year and didn't play all that well when he was healthy. So calling Zajac an all-star calibre player is laughable to the point that I think you might have been either trying to make fun of me or you were drunk when you posted that. Henrique will be pretty good but he's hardly an all-star calibre player. He's a guy who's a hair's breadth from barely cracking the top 100 scoring forwards in the league to being on the outside of that mark.

Do these guys give them 2 good lines. Absolutely. First off it's wrong to state they have 2 lines worth of all stars because they flat out don't. If they did these guys would be named to the NHL's first or second all star teams, unless you're talking about that farce they play in the middle of the season that is decided by fan balloting. At least I think it is as I pay no attention to that worthless display that is supposed to somehow resemble hockey.

There are a number of teams in the NHL that can put up 2 solid scoring lines. Without giving you every name of every team (I can if you want me to), I'll just ring off the teams.

Philly
Boston
Chicago
Ottawa
Rangers
Detroit
San Jose
Pittsburgh
Vancouver
St. Louis (borderline as they have the personnel for it but they didn't execute it)

Basically a 3rd of the league. And the Devils top 6 would be in that mix, probably somewhere around 5th or 6th.

FWIW I was being tongue in cheek about the goals/game needed to win playoff games. The number I threw out was more to make a point, not to provide an accurate gpg number. I was merely playing off the results of this year's run where it seems to me that there have been so many 1 goal games where the winning team only had 2 goals. I thought you would have caught what I was saying but I probably wasn't clear enough.

Look closer (league wide) at the goals per game numbers for the East and West conferences. I'm not mired in anything. 2012 is basically the only year of recent note where you could claim the East produced more offense and more offensively minded teams. For the record, it was a huge disparity this year in favor of the East. But one season doesn't reverse a trend that has held sway for the better part of a decade.

;\)

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#5677927 - 05/13/12 02:33 PM Re: Official NHL Playoff Thread [Re: Mio]
hockey&comicsguy Offline
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