So I finally got a chance to sit down with a spreadsheet last night to do a little numerical comparing of some registry sets. I sit down to finish up some loose ends today to find that I've been kicked to #2 on the registry by a single obscured set.
My goal was to see if any other well-known sets had such a big discrepancy between the point values of the first issue and the rest of the run.
My first thought was Walking Dead as it was somewhat of a surprise success that went on to achieve some fame outside of comics, similar to the TMNT. Not only that, but they're currently in the mid-eighties for issue numbers, comparable to the number of books in the TMNT 1-62 registry. It wasn't a big surprise to find that the first issue was worth more points than any other book in the set, but it wasn't even close to the same discrepancy. For these comparisons, I'll put some numbers like this:
FIRST APPEARANCE: *number of points in the registry for the first appearance issue in 9.8 universal*
EVERYTHING ELSE: *total number of points in the registry for every book other than the first appearance issue* Walking Dead: FIRST APPEARANCE: 120 EVERYTHING ELSE: 3328
Then I decided to go with something older and far more widely collected...Spider-man. To keep it as comparable as possible, I've included 85 issues of ASM and used AF15 as the first appearance. What I came up with: Spider-man: FIRST APPEARANCE: 840,000 EVERYTHING ELSE: 777,820
This means that if you had all of the issues from 1-85 in 9.8 (not counting AF15 at all), you'd have 92.6% of the points of an AF15 in 9.8. Someone that had all the issues except AF15 in 9.8 would need an AF15 in 8.5 condition to take over a lone AF 15 9.8 on the registry.
Then I decided to go with something a little older and very collected: Action Comics. Here's what I came up with (again using only the first 85 issues to make it comparable.
Superman: FIRST APPEARANCE: 7,200,000 EVERYTHING ELSE: 6,123,900
This means that if you had all of the issues from 2-85 in 9.8 (not counting Action 1 at all), you'd have 85.1% of the points of an Action 1 in 9.8. Someone that had all the issues except Action 1 in 9.8 would need an Action 1 in 9.2 condition to take over a lone Action 1 9.8 on the registry.
Compare this to TMNT 1-62. We get:
TMNT: FIRST APPEARANCE: 11,000 EVERYTHING ELSE: 6,600
This means that if you had all of the issues from 2-62 and the one-shots in 9.8 (not counting a #1 1st print at all), you'd have 60% of the points of a #1 1st print in 9.8. Someone that had all the issues except #1 1st print would need a #1 1st print in 9.6 condition to take over a lone Action 1 9.8 on the registry.
Of course I tried looking at other sets to figure out how tough it would be to overtake the points of a first appearance book in 9.8 by the rest of the set. Walking Dead, Crow, Miracle Man, Usagi (spelled "Usaji" in the registry ) Yojimbo all fail to need an entire run to compete with a single book. I needed to go to the oldest and most collected issues to start finding such a discrepancy and even in the case of Spider-man and Superman, 2 of the biggest characters in comics, I couldn't find a discrepancy as large.
To state it one more way, I could have a 9.4 TMNT #1 1st print and have every other of the 80+ books in 9.8 and STILL not have enough points to beat a TMNT #1 1st print in 9.8. I was unable to find any other registry set that could claim something similar. It just seems a little off. I'd like to solicit thoughts on this subject given the numbers. Am I just crying in my Cheerio's or could this be a legitimate issue that needs some points adjusted. I'd also be interested to hear any suggestions of registry sets that might have similar discrepancies. Thanks in advance!
Loc: Vernon Hills, IL
I think where you're going wrong here is by completely disregarding the monetary value of an issue #1 versus the rest of the issues in that particular set.
A Walking Dead #1 in CGC 9.8 is worth around $600 (so it's actually fairly undervalued in the registry), but buying all the other issues in the WD set in CGC 9.8 would set you back thousands of dollars. As such, it makes perfect sense that a WD #1 in CGC 9.8 does not trump all those other issues.
That's the case for pretty much all the CA sets you mention - even though the first issue carries a premium over all the other issues (well, with the exception of Miracleman where issue #1 is actually the cheapest of them all), there's nowhere near the value difference between issue #1 and #2 that we're seeing in the TMNT set.
I know how hard you've worked on your TMNT set - and that it must well & truly suck to be pushed to the #2 spot based on a single book - but bumping up the TMNT #2-62 issues to an unrealistic points value simply so the set cannot be dominated by a solitary #1 in CGC 9.8 is illogical and unfair.
The truth of the matter is that a lot of us collect titles where random issues are bloody hard to find in CGC 9.8 - but said issues just don't have much value on the open market. It took me almost 2 years to track down the solitary CGC 9.8 copy of Sandman #18 - the last book I needed in order to complete my set - and how does the Registry reward me? With 50 measly points. And as much as it pains me to admit this - 50 points is actually fair for that book. It's worth a ton more to me, but it would probably sell for about $60-70 if I put it on eBay.
And correct me if I'm wrong here, but isn't that also the case for most of the later issues of TMNT?
I'm sure that there are individual issues of TMNT where the points need adjusting - for instance, the #9 in 9.8 has two sales of $300, so 48 points for that book seems low. But it still doesn't change the fact that a #1 in CGC 9.8 is worth almost 75 times more than the 2nd most valuable book in that set (apart from the #3 variant) which you just can't ignore when it comes to assigning registry points.
(If anything, based on the recent $23k sale, a TMNT #1 in CGC 9.8 should actually be worth a lot more points than it is right now )
_________________________ Looking for: Neil Gaiman rarities Cerebus #1 in VF/NM or better